Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #41  
Old 4th November 2012, 09:12 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,058
Smile

Thanks Barny.

My mistake.
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 4th November 2012, 09:40 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
LG posted that the difference between a 100 Rated horse and a 95 Rated horse was the equivalent of one length ..... Is this correct ??
100=Top.
99=0.25
98=0.5
97=0.75
96=1.0
95=1.25
94=1.5
93=1.75
92=2.0
91=2.25
90=2.5
89=2.75
88=3.0.

Basically every 4 points from the top down = 1.0 lengths.
That's the scale i have always used with them others may be different.

These are for Skyform ratings i have never used,
100 pointers on Unitab as to many horses are rated,
On the same rating sometimes and way to close together,
For me to make heads or tails of, others may have a formula for them.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 4th November 2012, 09:59 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
100=Top.
99=0.25
98=0.5
97=0.75
96=1.0
95=1.25
94=1.5
93=1.75
92=2.0
91=2.25
90=2.5
89=2.75
88=3.0.

Basically every 4 points from the top down = 1.0 lengths.
That's the scale i have always used with them others may be different.

These are for Skyform ratings i have never used,
100 pointers on Unitab as to many horses are rated,
On the same rating sometimes and way to close together,
For me to make heads or tails of, others may have a formula for them.

Cheers.
Garyf.
As i was in the process of entering Race=6 at MT-gambier onto,
My spreadsheet now i will use that as an example.

R6
TATTS SKY
1= 100 95
2=90 85.
3=95 100.
4=93 92.
5=90 72.
6=96 83
7=96 80.
8=80 62.
9=89 65.
10=85 73

The winner was 3 $4.0 best tote.

If you look at horses within 3.0 lengths of the top rated on Tattsbet,
Down to 88 points there are 9 horses because they are so tightly marked.

If you look at Skyform there are realistically 3 chances only (3-1-4)

As i said i just used this as i am on this race now.

Cheers.
Gary.
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 4th November 2012, 10:16 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,058
Smile

Hi garyf,

Based on the Skyform ratings how do you work out a price for each horse?

Do you use Don Scott methods?

Using the Mt Gambier race 6 as an example #3 was the 100 pointer and the winner, what price would you allocate it?

I have found pricing the most difficult aspect to come to grips with when working with ratings (sorry Barny!).

Garyf - you're advice would be most appreciated.
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 4th November 2012, 10:44 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Hi garyf,

Based on the Skyform ratings how do you work out a price for each horse?

Do you use Don Scott methods?

Using the Mt Gambier race 6 as an example #3 was the 100 pointer and the winner, what price would you allocate it?

I have found pricing the most difficult aspect to come to grips with when working with ratings (sorry Barny!).

Garyf - you're advice would be most appreciated.
All depends what you want to do with the ratings once you get them,
For example over the years with these ratings i have found these factors,
To have the most influence on them.

lAST START FINISHING POSITION
T/RATING COLUMN
STRIKE RATE
PRIZEMONEY(AVERAGE)
POINTS IN THE CONSENSUS PANEL.

Most of these are already taken into account before they are produced,
Just i found they have the most influence on the raw ratings themselves.

Mt-Gambier R=6.

1=5.0
2=8.5
3=4.2
4=6.5
5=31.0
6=9.0
7=15.0
8=81.0
9=51.0
10=21.0

Hope this helps don't really want to go into the pricing side of it,
You will just have to experiment a bit.

Don't be to concerned with pricing and betting to overlays all the time,
If you can't price them while this is the preferred option just set a minimum,
Price on a horse until you get better at it.

With the right selection technique you can still win money at the races,
Without having to price them.

Try experimenting with different filters to improve strike rates and profits.

Hope this helps.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 5th November 2012, 08:46 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

The Tattsbet/Unitab rankings have been mentioned in this thread.

I use them in a Laying the Field method where all runners for a qualifying race must have a minimum of three starts, and it also depends on the price of the fave. The liability for each horse is calculated exclusively on Unitab's rankings and am currently showing a profit on 74 for every 100 races.

If a winning horse is under the odds as per Unitab's ratings there is more often than not another horse over the odds that compensates for it and consequently provides a profit on the race.

I don't know if this is important to anyone but it has got me currently thinking about betting the field as per Unitab's ratings. Maybe someone might also consider Unitab's ratings?

Last edited by michaelg : 5th November 2012 at 08:51 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 5th November 2012, 11:00 AM
Barny Barny is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
I have found pricing the most difficult aspect to come to grips with when working with ratings (sorry Barny!).


Don't apologize Try Try Again, I've got no idea how you could possibly price a horse from Ratings !
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 5th November 2012, 12:06 PM
Barny Barny is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
Default

A simple task with notionally backing every runner from Saturday for it's last five (or less if it hasn't had 5 runs !) starts. First column is Race number, second column is the Win S/R% and the third column is the POT. Obviously the negative comments on this scenario is that to "follow them for 5 starts", in some cases where they've only had a handful of runs, you'd have to know they were City Class in advance ?!. The other side of that argument is that there's some seasoned horses running that are being specifically set for The Melbourne Cup and are probs not expected to win ?!

Take it as you will, but I recall Shaun posting that if you back a horse that's won at Metro for it's next 5 runs it will win again in 70% of cases. So assuming the price is OK, in 70% of cases you'll finish square / in front ??, and in some cases well ahead because of the odds or multiple wins.

Is it easier to find a decent horse and follow it rather than try and rate a field ??

R1 .. 22 .. 24
R2 .. 17 .. (21)
R3 .. 20 .. 49
R4 .. 41 .. 53
R5 .. 13 .. (44)
R6 .. 29 .. 40
R7 .. 26 .. 81
R8 .. 31 .. 119
R9 .. 16 .. 76

Last edited by Barny : 5th November 2012 at 12:09 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 5th November 2012, 12:19 PM
norisk norisk is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 334
Default

__________________
"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 5th November 2012, 12:24 PM
Barny Barny is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
Question

What are you doing to me norisk ??! Bring back the punt before computers / scientific modelling came in to being !!
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 02:03 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655