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#51
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wesmip1 posted a good way to check the results of a system by luck or edge.
Its a good way to souce out the good from the bad filters in your system. |
#52
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Mate that is the general jist of what I was getting at, thanks for your support. Unfortunately there are people that always have to believe they know exactly what other people are thinking so that will be all I have to say on this topic - hopefully the information will be found to be useful by someone. |
#53
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Hi Barny, some nice stuff in your post, however I received some 'terrible' divvies on the weekend from track and distance winners, $12 and $23 respectively. Not all are overbet.
__________________
The Schmile "I buy when other people are selling.” ― J. Paul Getty |
#54
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Barny - if you run every race on your database over the 12 years would get a loss of around 15%? not sure of the exact figure Then using one filter of Won at Distance what is your LOT? If its better than the result above would it mean you have an edge or is it still overbet? |
#55
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TheSchmile "How do you know your $12 and $23 winners represented their true odds and were not overbet?" .... semantics aside, you know what I'm getting at. |
#56
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Barny, I can't find anywhere in mattio's posts that he knocked your $4-$30 filter and personally I agree that its a fine filter. It's generalised backfitting with that filter, its not specific. What me and mattio are getting at is that it would be a less enticing filter if it was $4.75 - $29.56 because you'd backfitted it that way to increase the POT.
Your filters that you've mentioned in your post seem fine Barny, as myself and mattio were both saying (in the general sense) that filters shouldn't be specific down to decimils to increase POT, round numbers or ranges instead of specifics will mean your not backfitting too closely to something that is unlikely to repeat or at least repeat anytime soon. Anyway I feel like my posts are going around in circles now so that enough from me. |
#57
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In short, I'm a genius Barny! ha ha Sorry I do digress, a fair point you make. On Sunday, I coupled a few 'Barny-type' factors into my minimum acceptable price. In the race with the $23 winner, the favourite was grossly overbet in my opinion and didn't run a place in a field with <9 runners. The fav's profile: It had a win SR of <20% and a place strike rate of <40%, was a sprinter and was running in a low class race. I completely agree with you that one should look past the obvious when doing the form. If a horse has a 211 formline and opens at $2.50, chances are every mug in Aus will be aboard and the price will often come into unders. If the race is of low standard and the horse shows little sign of further improvement e.g. 5+ runs from a spell, this generally represents a good time to look outside the square and find a horse or two to beat the hotpot.
__________________
The Schmile "I buy when other people are selling.” ― J. Paul Getty |
#58
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Try playing when the mugs aren't concentrating and you can pick the $$$ notes off the floor in relative solitude.
__________________
“Everyone’s got a plan. Until they get hit”. -Mike Tyson |
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