I think this comment, which is not word for word 'coz I lost my spot is worth taking note of.

Drum Roll please !!!!!!!

"The fewer and simpler filters in a system, the more chance of it repeating".
by Bhagwan.

The first thing that comes to mind to prove this point is the relatively steady percentage of favourites that win, and have done so since the year dot !

Absolutely agree.

A lot of my systems are based on ratings .. thus simple rules (2-4 rules). But does this fall under simple because the ratings have a lot of work and rules that go into them ?

Not sure !!!!

Personally I think if the rules are that simple then the mug punters are going to find out about them. The simple rules that were protiable will then disappear.

I would change the quote to say "The fewer but more complex filters, which are not easily identifiable by most punters, in a system, the more chance of it repeating".


My best rating system returns the following:

8285 selections for $8869 - $10015 on betfair. This is before commission but after commission its still a 230 point profit. (8511). This has no filters on it. It is just the top rated selections in every single race I have in my database. The profit here is 2.7%.

Add 1 filter to it :

4762 selections for $5555 - $6444 on betfair. Thats almost half the selections for double the profit (564 after commission of 5%). Notice also the profit is almost 12%.

Which would you prefer ?

Those with a data base - 1 rule

Won last 3 starts.

darky