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  #1  
Old 7th September 2012, 12:36 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink Testing two lazy Methods

I've been testing two "lazy" methods based on the neurals because my Lay the Outsiders method sees very little action. Both methods have been performing well (on paper only) based on Unitab divvies so I'll give them a go here.

Place method:

Wyong
6/1
7/2

Cairns
1/5
4/2
7/1

Pt Mac
1/9


Win Method

Geelong
1/7, 9, 10, 11
2/6, 8
3/7, 10, 11

Wyong
2/4, 5, 7, 13

Port Mac
1/3, 6, 8, 9
2/1, 4, 8, 9, 11
4/2, 3, 4, 7, 9
5/1, 2, 4

Last edited by michaelg : 7th September 2012 at 12:38 PM.
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  #2  
Old 7th September 2012, 02:46 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thanks Michaelg.
Being somewhat of a lazy loafer these appeal to me.
Cheers
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  #3  
Old 7th September 2012, 04:57 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

The Win system was a wipeout but there was one horse short of Cairns R5 being a qualifier. The selections would have included no.9 which won paying $60.

The Place system seems more reliable because I've often checked it and it snares quite a few placegetters (never really looked at Win results) but have never bet on it until today. From the six selections there were five placegetters paying a total of $6.90, and four winners paying $14.10.

If I have time tomorrow I will list the selections.
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  #4  
Old 7th September 2012, 06:54 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Unless I am reading your selections incorrectly Michaelg

Wyong race 2#13 won and paid $22.00 on Unitab
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  #5  
Old 7th September 2012, 07:46 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Thanks, Try, you're right, I missed it. The method also got the quinella of $88.

Unfortunately I did not bet the selections.

I was quite surprised and disappointed because the system had been doing well up to today, but now I hope to continue listing the selections here as it may have merit.
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  #6  
Old 8th September 2012, 12:15 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

These are today's Place selections:

Belmont
2/3
3/2

Dombeen
4/1 (NTD)

Flemington
2/1
5/9

Warwick Farm
1/2 (NTD)
4/3
5/1
7/2 (NTD)

Sale
1/15 (resuming)

Toowoomba
1/3 (NTD)
5/1 (NTD)
6/5 (NTD)

Cairns
2/2
3/2 (NTD)


I've flagged the selections as NTD because their races have less than 8 starters. I'll still be backing them to Place.
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  #7  
Old 9th September 2012, 06:49 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

From the 16 selections there were 9 winners for a return of $30.50 and 11 placegetters for a return of $17.50.

Deleting the NDT races there were 6 winners from the 9 races for a return of $26.30 and 7 placegetters for a return of $12.80.

Over the two days of listing here there have been 22 selections for 13 winners paying a total of $44.60 and 16 placegetters paying $24.40.

At this early stage it seems that Win betting might be the way to go and also omitting races with less than eight starters.

If there are any selections today I'll list them when available.
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  #8  
Old 9th September 2012, 08:48 AM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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Might be worth mentioning that NTDs are often not that on Betfair as they pay a third place quite regularly (depending on when the scratching came in).

Another thing that I might mention here is that horses whose history ends up ...X1 are often a good lay. By my calculations (can't be absolutely certain of the figures) yesterday there were 11 lay winners of this sort, and only one loser. Note that I do not lay them unless there are at least 9 starters --- have to make it a little difficult for the horse and jockey! --- nor do I lay an odds on shot e.g. Strawberry Boy, Platinum Rocker, ...yesterday. Have a feeling it was Bhags who first pointed the above out.

If anyone is interested, there are 9 of the above at all meetings today (before scratchings). Good luck.
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  #9  
Old 9th September 2012, 10:09 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Yes, Merriguy, sometimes Betfair pays three "divvies" but to bet one would have to be at a computer just prior to the race because unfortunately one generally can't have a Place-bet on S.P.

That X1 situation seems very logical. However one could dismiss Black Type races because they have the best horses, such as Black Caviar, More Joyous, etc, even though it would be expected the loss would be quite small. I assume yesterday's good result applied to all selections regardless of their price? If so, laying them on S.P. might be worthwhile.
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  #10  
Old 9th September 2012, 10:40 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Today's selections are:

I've omitted NTD races, selections not resuming and must have had at least two career starts.

Hobart
4/9
6/1

Bendigo
1/3
9/7

Kalgoorlie
4/1

Sun Coast
1/6

Alice Springs
2/11
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