Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 7th January 2012, 12:48 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default Favs and losing runs

Can anyone run a database and maybe provide some stats?

On a long losing runs of favourites, do they become poorer and poorer value? Was thinking the other day that with the amount of people/systems that chase favs, after a loosing run of even 3-4 favs, would the odds on offer versus the true value of the favourite start to be affected?

What got me thinking about this was we were at the casino the other day, and there had been a run of 5 reds, so naturally, everybody started throwing all there money on the black because supposedly it was due to win. As it turned out, there were another 4 reds in a row, which quickly bankrupted a number of the players at the table who kept backing it.

Any thoughts on this, do you think this would apply to racing as well, and could we use this to our advantage in laying favs to lose?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 7th January 2012, 01:48 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Think of it this way:

On 1000 spins of a wheel you will get 500 red and 500 black (assumign no green on roullete wheel).

So if you had 5 red in a row. Lets assume that we always get 500 reds every 1000 spins. So we have 495 more to go in the next 995 spins. Your advantage has now gone to 500/995 for black which is 50.2%

The above assumes that exactly 500/500 comes out for each colour and that there is no green on the wheel. If you include the green then your still at a disadvantage.

Now your talking favourites. They don't have a 50/50 chance. They are closer to 30%. So lets go 1000 races and you had 5 favs in a row lose. That means your expectation is now that 300 will win from 995 bets. Your increased chance has gone from 30% to 30.1%.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 7th January 2012, 01:59 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,424
Default

I've seen 15 reds in a row at Crown, certain cultures love going with patterns and walked out with plaques rather than chips.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 407,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 7th January 2012, 02:14 PM
norisk norisk is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 334
Default

I don't have any stats but I believe that on average the starting price of winning favourites increases slightly as your average race card progresses, which may suggest that they do not present poorer value on a losing run.

Just my observations.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 7th January 2012, 02:39 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

I understand the probabilty stats, I'm more interested in wether the market chases favs on a losing run, hence making them under the odds, seeing as they are not fixed as per the casinos and fluctuate in accordance to the weight of money being bet on them, SR has nothing to do with what I am asking. So many punters target favs, and start doubling up, or betting larger as each one looses, as in their mind 'the next one is bound to win,' which those of us with a basic ground in stats and probabilitys is a comlete fallacy.

But, maybe i cant put across clearly exactly what I am asking??
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 7th January 2012, 02:41 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by norisk
I don't have any stats but I believe that on average the starting price of winning favourites increases slightly as your average race card progresses, which may suggest that they do not present poorer value on a losing run.

Just my observations.
The SR usually drops though compensating, and generally the later races are more open handicap type races, instead of maidens full of no hopers at the start of teh card.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 7th January 2012, 03:05 PM
norisk norisk is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 334
Default

True, but the longer price may also suggest that it is not affected by those chasing the fav, doubling up or whatever.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 7th January 2012, 03:17 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Could be the case, but ultimately the ROI needs to be taken into account to see if that is the case or not. You may be getting $5 about a favourite in the later races, but if its really a $6 chance, your going to have a poor ROI backing them if you see what I am getting at.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 7th January 2012, 03:53 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
Default

Until you have classified how each Favourite became the public favourite (by a variable or combo of two) and then the strength of "gap" between the 2nd Fav. basically you will never know.

But to answer your question wagering bias does occur but not how your thinking.

Best tip
Start handicapping your fellow punter not the horses. In wagering there are only a few strong variables at play

Joe Public will play those types (per variable and gap strength) of favourites over and over the same way day in day out.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 7th January 2012, 04:25 PM
norisk norisk is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 334
Default

Well if we go back to your casino example, what did the red & black boxes look like on that 9th red spin? Red box choka full of chips & the black basically friendless I am guessing.

If similar scenarios were to play out at the track/tab, we should expect to see favourites well over bet in later races, & in my experience we often do, but there is enough 'smart money' around to keep said favourite at a decent price - make hay while the sun shines & all that

So what I am saying is that no, in general losing runs do not have an effect on the SP of a fav.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:23 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655