The on thing I haven’t seen much discussion on here is picking a horse and following it for several starts.



Logic is that there are so many variables in horse racing to take into account and as mentioned before my list of 100 excuses why a horse didn’t win. So, one or even two failures, or even a failed campaign can be forgiven. A failed campaign you say ?! “A failed campaign !!” You’ll find the trainer will usually pull the pin after a couple of runs if nothing seems to be going right.



So how do we pick a horse that will win ?



Barnys’ rules



1) Look for a NZ’der with ability. These ************s have been coming over here for years with OK sort of horses that seem to beat our good ‘uns. They’re not bringing them over for no reason. Give a proven performer a couple of runs.



2) Look for a lightly raced horse, potentially good, racing in QLD, WA or even SA that’s been placed, what seems to be, waaaay out of it’s class. Put it in your black book and watch it when it comes back from a spell in Melbourne over a similar distance.



3) Watch for those interstate neddies (not Sydney !) that have really good form in the way of an outstanding SR and back them a couple of times.



4) Black book any horse that breaks a track record, regardless where it is. It’s obviously got ability.



5) Keep your eyes peeled for a lightly raced horse with an excuse for a really bad run (failed due to track conditions etc). Black book it.



6) Try this ‘un. A lightly raced horse on the bottom weight with good form, provided there are only a couple on the minimum, with a huge pull in weights over the top weight. Worth a couple of runs that ‘un.



7) A horse that’s had between 10 and 15 runs who’s second up from a spell after a Barry Crocker first up. Again with decent form prior to a spell.



8) When JB Cummings has an interest in one.



The above is based on the premise that there’s a lot of luck involved in racing, and even the trainers and jockeys don’t always know when one is going to win, but they do know when they’ve got a good ‘un. Some fantastic odds are frequently available because of an ordinary, and unexplained run, only to find it's true potential realised in the next start or two. "Geez ..... you could have easily had that on it's run a few starts back?!"

I’ll release another of my 100 reasons why a horse didn’t win. “Shied at the crossing” ….. and that to “Some horses just don’t try when it’s windy”


I’d love some more suggestions as to how to pick a horse to back for a few runs please.

A horse, A capable one with proven performance! in the right race and right company, right distance, reasonable jock, is a good proposition for starters!

Everything to the opposite of the above and you can follow that horse to the poorhouse, no matter, how many times it will run, no matter how good the horse is in his own class it will only win by accident!

Coming from NZ or Europe means nothing if the horse is no good, owners, trainers, other connections often have stars in their eyes.

Just look at the Melbourne cup!

Trainers "know" and I say that advisedly, only their own horses, it takes a few other runners to make a race and most of the time they have only a vague idea about the ability and current state of preparation of those other horses.

If blindly following horses, hoping they will eventually win and make a profit, there would be no need for handicapping-rating races.

Ever noticed that one day a horse is a hotshot fav. and even wins, and next week the same horse in a seemingly similar race is regarded as a rank outsider? Think on that. It all comes back to right ....race...etc...

Good luck.

PS. I like the way you have the little grey cells turning around, keep at it!

Barny, I have has some success over the years by picking a few to follow over the carnivals eg Melb spring & Sydney autumn, & mainly arrive at the nags to follow by keep a close eye on trials, the first couple of starts back from a spell & betting markets - obviously being in a top stable doesnt hurt.

Unless you have the time to daily trawl through racing replays & trials (which I dont) Ive always found finding horses to follow from your average racing calender is tough work & reckon there are easier ways to find a winner - dare I say it "follow the money" can be more rewarding, provided of course your not the last mug in line.

lomoca, I don't suggest we throw darts at the formguide .......

I was driving over Kosiosko last Feb / Mar and listened to a racing program about NZ horses and they went into great detail about Wall Street being NZ's best horse, it's form and the fact it was set for the Cox Plate. It won one race out of two here at 6/1. A horse called Ginga Dude ran Wall Street to a neck over 1,600 metres the start before Ginga Dude came over here. Ginga Dude won at double figure odds trouncing the opposition.

Bart Cummings was spruiking Rock Classic, who on form didn't appear too flash. It proceeded to win a big race at double figure odds.

Why was Ginga Dude overlooked ?

Why was Rock Classic overlooked ?

I'm not looking for duds at all, I'm studying to find a potentially decent horse and giving it a couple of runs. When Bart gives a horse one run then puts it out for a spell, that's worth a look. Also worth a look is a horse with a really good strike rate who has had a shocker first up. The unwashed usually think it hasn't "come up", which may be true, but one run in ?

Good on you.

All I'm saying, if I had been betting on trainers spruiking their own horses, the opinions of the so called in the "knows" every time, I would have given up punting, disappointed, bitter and dead broke a long time ago.

And I don't care where the gossip comes from, I ignore it go by class and form.
Overlooked by whom?
Only by the ignorants.

Just because Bart, or any trainer is talking his horse up, doesn't mean it is no good, just as it doesn't mean it is!

Easiest way to get a good stable if your inclined to bet that way is Robbie Waterhouse Black Book.(Free)
Cheers
darky

Thank you Darkydog2002

Any results?
Have noticed that in his weekly email, but never actually followed them or kept results.

You may find this an interesting read http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthr...ight=Black+Book
I posted on this subject awhile ago and found staking an important part of the process.

Barny

I've made a decent return from following a stable of horses to lay. Use something like the Blackbook service on R&S and it becomes a fairly straight forward process.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash