Hi all,

My question may be easy to answer or it may be quite difficult - My brain is already in holiday mode, so I'm not sure I'm thinking about this correctly. I understand that realistically any bet that I place has an impact on the dividend of that horse. What I'm after is the point at which my single bet significantly changes the odds.

For example, say I have a 70% place strike rate and those nags have an average place divvy of $1.60. My PoT would be 12%. However, if my bets are large enough that I reduce the average place divvy to $1.40, i'm now making a 2% loss on turnover.

At what point might my bet of $X into a place pool of $Y cause this to happen? I guess it's related to field size and the spread of other place bets over that field, but I'm not looking for a thorough mathematical answer; just something like "if the place pool is $10,000 then a $250 bet will do this."