LMAO ...poor Breadman

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No sir it means you are a purveyor of death. Shame on you.

Thanx kv. LOL

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OK Chrome. lets eliminate everything except experience.

My 35 [odd] years of experience as a punter says 'leave wet tracks alone' [and I never back favorites anyway except by mistake as they are always 'unders'].

Faced with any field, horses that have not run on a wet track are 'wet track maidens' and they exist in most races on wet tracks. You have no form to work with. The very reason that handicappers don't back maiden races. They may or may not perform well and the punter has no way of knowing except perhaps 'prediction' from sires wet track ability which is not reliable, but superstition [Tarzan's brother drowned in a bath].

Unknown form is the first reason to bypass a race and there is plenty of it in any race on a wet track.
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It's a matter of each to their own Crash, we all have preferences and dislikes, but statistically there is no reason to avoid these track conditions.

It was not meant to turn anyone around, just the myth of not believing what is written as gospel.

I wouldn't back wet track maidens either, but I would have no hesitation in backing a proven mudder in wet conditions and would not be put off by the mere fact that it's wet.

I didn't post the figures for proven runners on purpose

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Well with all these differing opinions, im left with only one thing to do. Who am i gonna call??? Myth Busters!!!

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I know it's a little off-topic, but Crash are you serious in your belief that favourites are ALWAYS unders?

Monkeyinjapan

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Monkeyinjapan,

'Unders' is a subjective thing.

I look for races where I think the likely favorite can be beaten and in most races favorites are beaten, so why look for and back favorites you think can win and accept their inferior prices when there are plenty of races where the actual winner is more than likely going to be 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. SP fav. That's the easiest way to find good prices .......for this punter anyway.


Chrome,

If a punter backs a good wet tracker on a 'heavy' track and there are say 4 runners in the race who have never run on heavy before [wet track maidens], the punter is betting blind and guessing [and bad luck also if your runner cops a big lump of turf in it's face at speed].
One [or more] of those 4 runners just might be a brilliant wet tracker and even better than the one that has been backed. There is no way the punter can know this until after the race.

If any horse[s] in a race does not have exposed form for the track conditions, the race is a guessing game. Guessing and punting are a good recipe for losing money. There will always be another race, so why bother with slow or heavy tracks where horses are having mud and turf kicked up in their faces at 60ks? Some punting tragics justify it because they just HAVE to have a bet, regardless of conditions.

In my opinion you aren't betting blind if you know the horse can handle the going and is what you think is a fair price. Upsets happen in any going, interference, jockey error etc etc.

The statistics reflect that it is no worse backing Heavy runners than any other track regardless of the other horses.

I'd rather back a plodding Heavy tracker with good class and form than a reefing and tearing fast tracker any day, but as I said we have different methods and different views which is all good.

The point is what was published was misleading and, in fact, wrong.

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[QUOTE=Chrome Prince]In my opinion you aren't betting blind if you know the horse can handle the going and is what you think is a fair price.
QUOTE]

Yep, that will work in a 1 horse race or where unknown form of the other runners is unimportant. You'll get rich quick with that handicapping method:-))