A recent un named publication supplied figures showing that Heavy Tracks have the worst S/R for favourites, and an amazing 17% Loss on turnover.

As this is one of my first busted myths some years ago, I couldn't help but chuckle at the perpetuation of urban myth.

The real story is this:

Fast 32.09% SR, 10.94% LOT
Good 21.41% SR, 12.79% LOT
Dead 29.36% SR, 16.81% LOT
Slow 29.18% SR, 13.59% LOT
Heavy 29.10% SR, 11.82% LOT

Heavy is second only to Fast tracks in Loss on turnover and a lot better than Good going for strike rate, and that includes winter Hurdles / Steeples.

An even bigger picture emerges when you eliminate hurdles, first uppers, first starters.

"The things that you're liable, to read in the Bible, they ain't necessarily so"

Myth Busted

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Of course like all stats Chrome they will support anything you like [you don't work for the Government do you?].

The important info that has not been taken into account in your figures is that wet tracks decimate field sizes. The wetter the track the more scratchings there will be so naturally the eventual favorites for 'X' number of say 'heavy' track races, might have 50% less runners than the same number of races on a 'good' track.

Naturally under these [distorted] circumstances more favorites will win on wet tracks. Try the states again were the runner numbers are the same [all things being equal] and you will have crumbs on your chin old boy.

Myth Buster Busted :-))

True but meaningless stat.
100% of the people who eat bread will eventually die !

I guess this is just another case of stats, damned stats & different outcomes.

I think its correct to state that Chrome's database only records metro meetings, not sure if only the Saturday metro races are recorded or all of them.

Whatever, I've run a check of my database covering all meetings for the last six months, every meeting, every race, everywhere & the outcomes are somewhat different.

Comparing favourites on Good & Heavy track conditions only:

Heavy:
Races: 403
Winners: 120
S/Rate: 29.8%
LOT: 15.3%

Good:
Races: 6,387
Winners: 2,130
S/Rate: 33.3%
LOT: 11.7%

Observations & other tests of similar in the past indicate that what has happened in the last six months is an indicator of the long term performance of favourites on good & heavy tracks.

Chrome, I'm not sure it's the myth buster you claim it to be.

NSW races with 8 runners about last 10 years. SP Favorites.

Fast going 1054 bets, SR 36.43%, ROI 90.83%
Good going 5231 bets, SR 36.05%, ROI 89.89%
Dead Going 1364 bets, SR 34.53%, ROI 89.48%
Slow going 736 bets, SR 31.79%, ROI 81.69%
Heavy going 563 bets, SR 33.03%, ROI 87.96%

KV

3 lots of stats 3 different outcomes which makes them worth....?

Here is another more recent stat. that is 100% reliable:

Gosford today [heavy track]:

Fav. SR 0%

The database records all metro meets not just Saturdays, it also has the country past runs as well.

Crash, while I understand about field sizes, the point is that one can filter to a point where the results are actually unreliable.

Regardless of field size, first up, first starter, hurdle/steeple etc...there is no apparent reason to steer clear of favourites on heavy going. They perform better than Good going, but you never hear anyone say "I'll give up punting while the tracks are Good."

These are raw stats without any filters whatsoever, so I can't be accussed of manipulating data.

I could find any one of meeting in any one off day where a favourite didn't win.

If the stats are meaningless, then why is there this myth about wet tracks?

Because it's been drummed into punters for years and every bolter that wins in the wet becomes food for perpetuation. When it happens in firmer going, the reply is either "how did I miss that" or "setup".

The variance in the other poster's figures are because of limited data fluctuation, the picture becomes distorted or skewed with limited numbers, you can catch the ebb or flow rather than the overall outcome.

My Good data was based on over 13,500 races
My Heavy data was based on over 1062 races

Almost double the other samples.

Even KV's figure reflect that Heavy is still not the worst contender even when divided down into one State and only a small percentage of the data.

I did want to compare apples with apples with no other filters as that was what was offered in this publication.

Therefore, the myth has been busted at least in regards to what was published and in my personal opinion overall.

Surely the inclusion of hurdles and steeples compensates for field size issues, not all races are decimated by scratchings in Heavy going, by the time it's got to heavy weather, they are either running or not, it's the transitional months where it is slow where the scratchings are more prolific.

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For the sake of the argument, let's eliminate first starters, first uppers, hurdles and steeples.


Going Avg No. Of Starters

Fast 11.28
Good 10.73
Dead 10.90
Slow 10.61
Heavy 10.06

Sure there are less runners in Heavy than other going, but the impact is a variance of less than 1 on average, so I can't see this distorting the figures to any extent. I'm sure many thought that the average number of runners in Heavy going would be FAR less than other conditions, not a variance of less than 1 runner.

Here are the amended S/R's...

Fast 32.21%
Good 31.67%
Dead 29.34%
Slow 29.33%
Heavy 29.26%

Well is this where the myth started, I wonder?

As overall field size increases, so does the average win dividend in all going, a compensation in price for chance, so let's see how punters compensate for the going and if it's a poor bet in Heavy going....

Here are the amended Loss On Turnover figures....

Fast -11.02%
Good -11.30%
Dead -16.16%
Slow -12.73%
Heavy -11.06%

Dead and Slow are far far worse than Heavy, and Heavy is even better than Good going.

I still see absolutely no reason not to be on Heavy tracks, and to say that Heavy is the worst return and almost 17% loss on turnover is misleading to the punter.

Incidentally, the usual benchmark is "rain affected" or "not rain affected"

I tend to see it as "rain affected", "transitional", "not rain affected"

Transitional is the one to look out for, the "might see how he goes" trainer mentality. Or the "give him a run anyway".

By the time we look at Heavy, the horse is a good bet if still running, as the trainer thinks he can handle it, and so does the public.

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Bread has nothing to do with it because 100% of people will die.

100% of bread eaters will die
100% of non bread eaters will die

The stats tell you this as well.

Oh...and no crumbs on my chin

__________________
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Does this mean im going to die too :O

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