Hi All.

Been playing with taking two runners to win.

Ive been doing the following:

Horse A:
100 units/odds
Horse B:
100 units/odds

Say A is 3 and B is 5.5

Gives us a bet of 100/3 = $33 units on A and 100/5.5 = $18

its been working well, flat stakes,

As long as the OUTLAY for the two combined runners IS BELOW 50 units, assuming 50 % S/R we will be in front flat stakes.

Selections are the fav and second/third/fourth, what ever you like at 5 minutes before jump, look for overlays on the "non favs" using which ever method you like.

It is best to bet with fixed odds, fluctuations sometimes go the wrong way.

Another thing, if something is paying OVER 10, say 15, KEEP the odds at 10 regardless, if it comes in, its a bonus.

Interested if anyone else has played with this.

Three days last week i used it and only had to have five bets to clear all targets, yesterday was another cracker !

Cheers Ding

I was a 2 horse per race man for about 15yrs. Now I'm a one horse per race man. If 2 horse per race are better than 1, then why not 4? There can be only one winner [unless a dead-heat] and any other bets you have are done dough and also both selections often lose [far too often].

A race bet amount can be divided up anyway you like without being better off than single bets. It's simple maths. If punter 'A' has $20 on a horse at $5sp. and it wins, he collect $100 and make $80 profit. If Punter 'B' has $10 on the same horse and $10 on another he has also outlayed $20 but collects $50 and only makes $30 profit [not $40]. Why? Because he he has lost $10 on a losing bet in the same race [that could have been a winning bet on another race].

Crash, you are a favourite of mine as your handicapping techniqes remind me so much of my type of betting in the Uk (many years ago) I lived on my wits so to speak!! @ but on this one you have lost me....... I'm wondering if you have become "befuddled" with all this system stuff!

Read crash's words carefully, he is spot on the money.

I've highlighted his most important words....



This is why it doesn't work unless you know all your horses are over the odds.

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Hi, Chrome prince.

I knew someone who knew someone (sounds somewhat poetic) who worked with Mark Read. He said that M. R. would look at his top three selections and then totalled their percentages. For example, if they totalled 60% and he could get that percentage he would bet all three horses regardless if one, or even two, were below his calculated prices. If he could not get that total percentage then he would not bet on any of the three horses.

Again, this is only anecdotal and I am not certain if it is factual. But it does seem to have logic, and provides a fairly high strike rate.

Hi Party,

One thing I haven't lost in this game is sound reasoning. What I have done in this system page of the forum is get to the point with far fewer but carefully chosen words to describe my meaning. Chrome got the gist spot on. Especially: " A race bet amount can be divided up anyway you like without being better off than single bets' [2+2 will always = 4] ........which well and truly addresses the subject of this thread period.

thats where i was going, betting under 50 % michaelg.
If one looks at the s/r of certain winners, as long as there is profit there, it could be a bet.
I dont mean bet every race, or bet 70 units on a 2/1 fav and 10 on the next, just bet when there is value.
Somewhere else on the net there is discussion on overlays and HOW to find them or it, some bookies top two or three "favs" are what i am pointing to,...without saying names !
These "professionals" know their business, therefore the odds that they are offering, if something or two somethings stand out like dogs #@&*% then maybe thats a bet.
Their top three or four are the big win s/r winners.
I agree 110 % with you guys regarding betting one runner, but i take heart that too many times i have had a beaut selection process fall apart with my selectionss running second continually, only to change feet and then have them all winning and not being on them.

A personal contact from this forum emailed me once with an idea once and in that message he said basically ANY funds made of the punt is good,...and free (kind of sorta)

Anyways, just ideas, maybe some one might see some something in it.

Cheers Ding

Hi michaelg,

I know he dutch bets from his writings and publicised bets, there are also many pro punters that dutch bet successfully.

I'm not sure he bets if they are below his calculated prices though, as this would be suicide.

There's nothing wrong with dutch betting if you have an accurate rating system and can maintain a posive outcome, what is questionable, is betting to odds or get a profit, when you are betting unders most of the time.

Having said all that, if the ratings system is that accurate, I'm of the opinion that betting more than one horse is shotgun approach and better profits could be made by backing the top rated longterm straight out (IF the ratings are accurate).

However, it depends on the price obtainable.

One might have a horse rated at 2/1 on top and get 5/2 odds, and might have the second top rated at 6/1, but get 12/1 odds.

Why bet the top rated, when the overs clearly are with the 6/1 shot, just for the sake of snaring a winner. Longterm the profits are with the greater overlay.

Again, IF the ratings are accurate.

One bet is always a wasted bet and money down the gurgler!

Racing is unpredictable as we all well know by hard luck and experience, if both or all lose, it's very hard to make that up, you need to get massive overs to make up the loss of two or three losers, two or three times.

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Yes, if his ratings are accurate. But if what my friend says is true, then maybe M. R. might think the total ratings of the three horses are more accurate than the rating of each individual horse?

You do have a point there

I'm not sure whether MR is more punter than bookie, or bookie than punter.

Too many punters think about strike rate (shotgun approach to snare a winner).

Too many bookies think about percentages (when betting, not fielding).

Both are doing themselves an injustice, by eating into their longterm profits.

While a high strike rate builds confidence, and percentages are very important, we can be blinded by the impact on the ACTUAL dollar return.

It's dollars won and in the pocket, not strike rate or percentages.

If you know what I mean.

Here's an example:

I go to the track and have three bets in three races and two of them win providing a profit of 5 units.

Or

I go to the track and bet five horses in three races and two of them win.

1 Bet 3 profit 5
2 Bet 15 profit 5

Same profit, bigger exposure (risk).

A bad day sees me lose 3 units in case 1
A bad day sees me lose 15 units in case 2

Very hard to come back from 15 units down as opposed to 3 units down.

Likely profit outcome has to be case 1

Profit has to be easier to make with less risk, even though the strike rate might not be as high.

Mr. MR is in the unique position of being able to manipulate his own odds.
He just might be settling for his 60%, so he can adjust his book accordingly.

__________________
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Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg