Looks like the larger liabilities can blow the SP out, eg PR1 SP $168 & around $40+ the totes/fixed price, or is that the normal ratio you expect with these?

Yes, it was $168 S.P but it's Lay price on the Exchange was $300.

In the same race No 4's S.P. price was $32 yet on the exchange it's Bet price was $36 and it's Lay price was $38...???

I've had a quick look at horses that are at least $30 on S.P. - it seems their Lay prices on the Exchange are higher than S.P.

This might suggest if one wants to Lay an outsider it could be better to do so on S.P. than on the exchange?

Today's 10 selections were beaten for a profit of $126.14.

Michael, if I could make a suggestion/observation, call it what you will.

While I am very much the skeptic when it comes to the long term viability of laying long-shots one or two out, there's little doubt your onto something & doing well, so you have opened my eyes a bit, along with many others I am sure.

As there is a limited amount of funds available at the wide end of the market, I now believe you are doing yourself a disservice listing the selections each day & I am certain you will start to see your average SP drifting, if that isn't already happening & suspect it is with many jumping on your bandwagon. (No, I am not one of them & not posting this trying to protect my pocket).

Much the same as someone who develops a successful favourite system, then lets the world know but then cannot make a profit as he can no longer get the prices he needs, you could well be facing a similar outcome. In fact it wouldn't surprise to see your system pop up in a magazine shortly & that would surely kill it off.

Anyway best of continued luck to you as you have done what most cannot, but reckon you should consider letting this thread slip off the front page.

Thanks for your advice, Stugots.

I will periodically check the S.P. price (for this and the neural system) and if it continually exceeds the Lay price on the exchange I'll know something's amiss, then I'll have to do something about it. But I hope it never happens.

Today's selections ($999 liability bets):

Goulburn
3/2
6/16

Sale
4/13
5/5, 15

Rocky
5/14

Albany
1/8, 12
2/1, 5
6/10
7/13

I am a good friend of MG and I have warned him of this 6 mths ago
He is such a nice guy he can't help himself, helping others
He works very hard at these systems and I told him that it will one day, pop up as a successful system in some publication ( for a price).
I am sure his lay prices are much larger than when he first started.
I only wish him the best in future

I've been following MG 's system but don't get a fill on his selections very often because I set the bot to max odds of 50. I can't see the risk/reward over that. Then you get ripped off on prices! Look at Goulburn 3/2 Irish Rocks: 82 on the tote, 550 BF Back & 640 Lay.
Forget it!
RP

Thanks for the kind and encouraging words, gents.

I don't know if my (or anyone's) large lay bets are affecting the S.P. price. Goulburn 3/2 was a very disappointing price, but I think this is quite common for long shots. For example no.3 in the same race was not a selection but it's price(s) was also just as disappointing. Both horses' S.P. price was much lower than their Lay price shown on the Exchange which does not worry me, especially as their S.P. price is slightly higher than the Bet price on the exchange.

Today's 11 selections were all beaten for a profit of $103.16.

Michael I think you will find that the exchange prices are now often longer than they previously were as punters are also laying your selections on the exchange, & in doing so they are matching up many of the lay bets that previously would have converted to SP if unmatched at the jump.

Anyway there's an easy way to check & that would be to calculate your % returns since you moved to the larger stake, for example yesterday I believe there were 11 bets so -

$103.16/10989 = .939%

If you do this daily & list the results I would be happy to create a graph to display if your returns are diminishing or not.

Thanks, Stugots.

I began laying for $999 last Tuesday. The results since then as described by you are:

Tuesday = 0.179
Wednesday =0.79
Yesterday = 0.939

How do I calculate if there is an accident? I'm still not convinced the prices are diminishing so I'm going to do some further research.

Today's selections:

Ballarat
2/10, 13
3/10
4/1, 2, 7, 14, 17