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  #1  
Old 17th July 2019, 05:20 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default Price Winning Percentage

I know it is in here somewhere but can't find it, can anyone tell me the percentage chance based on fav position if winning.

Fav winning 30%
2nd fav winning ?
3rd fav wining?

I know price plays a big factor but am just after an estimate.
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  #2  
Old 17th July 2019, 06:35 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Roughly

34%
22%
15%
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  #3  
Old 17th July 2019, 06:42 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Roughly

34%
22%
15%


cheers mate, that's a bit higher than i thought.
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  #4  
Old 17th July 2019, 06:47 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
cheers mate, that's a bit higher than i thought.


I actually wrote them down without looking it up but then went and checked the database to confirm. The numbers are right.
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  #5  
Old 17th July 2019, 07:52 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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So if one were Multi Betting then the first 3 in the betting would be the ones to concentate on @ 71% strike rate.

Might actually trial this.

Thanks.
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  #6  
Old 19th July 2019, 04:55 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
So if one were Multi Betting then the first 3 in the betting would be the ones to concentate on @ 71% strike rate.

Might actually trial this.

Thanks.


The payouts will be hopeless. Not worth it.
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  #7  
Old 19th July 2019, 08:48 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Yes.

The prices and returns were hopeless.
Didn,t take me long to chuck that idea aside.
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  #8  
Old 1st August 2019, 03:30 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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FAV 30%
2nd- 25
3rd- 15
4th- 10
5th- 5
Total 85%

Favs % can vary a bit depending on number ot odds on shots in sample batch.

If you remove all odds on shots in that 1st FAVs 30% fig. S/R drops to 27%
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  #9  
Old 1st August 2019, 08:21 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Metro Melb Sat only 1850 Races, 6 Dead Heats
PrePost Herald Sun, Divs Are BSP--Figures are rounded


Fav 32 1.08 1790 565 3.42
2nd 16 0.88 1783 291 5.39
3rd 13 0.96 1773 236 7.2
4th 11 0.99 1759 185 9.45
5th 9 0.94 1724 148 10.97

% Return on $1 Starters Winners Av. BSP































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  #10  
Old 3rd August 2019, 09:03 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected field size was 9 - 13 starters.

RANK..........1.............2............3........ .....4........
$2.0...........44.8%......XX........XX..........XX
$2.5...........34.1.........XX........XX.......... XX
$3.0...........28.7........29.9.......33.3........ .XX
$3.5...........23.7........23.3.......24.1........ .XX
$4.0...........20.0........20.2.......18.4........ 16.7
$4.5...........17.9........18.1.......17.6........ 19.3
$5.0...........15.6........14.9.......14.7........ 12.9

The average Aus Field is 11 (rounded .... I can't deal with 0.18 of a horse).

Doubtless it would be possible to correct either/both WSR and Price to BSP (I haven't looked).
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