Foxwood,
I was not suggesting the system would be useless - just that blind acceptance of any system's selections is risky.
I could even debate your suggested extra filter of ignoring a selection opposed to an odds-on favourite. It may well be a false favourite and the system selection may be a great bet.
As I said before - it's a judgement call.

Quite simply using a price filter takes care of the opposition.

The market being the best guide to a horse's chances, a horse with the same qualifications may start at 20/1 or 5/1 in different races, the price reflecting the class of the opposition.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

OK I've created a monster here.

Thing is, what I was TRYING to say - and I think zorro was alluding to - was that mechanical systems can never take the place of common sense, and no matter how much you put in rules like "don't bet against odds on favourites" etc, they are nothing more than polyfilla to fill the gaps left by virtue of the fact that rules cannot think for themselves.

There are a BILLION systems which post the event could come up with Makybe Diva, like third letter K for example, or back the horse in the race who has two names, both with even numbers of letters. Not disputing that systems could come up with it, what I was really trying to say is that the capacity for the human mind to be creative and think creatively far outweighs the capacity of a set of rules to do same.

Mind you, with that in mind I started this thread because I do love systems, and I seem to have found one with a werribee sewerage farm's worth of promise, and since I began putting money down the other day it has had six bets for three winners, POT of 95%. So, at this point, I am rapt, and don't go anywhere I may just be a system convert if this keeps up.

Mind you, I know it won't, am expecting it to fall over at any point, systems can't win, touch wood, salt over the shoulder, cross myself.

Duritz.

PSSSST, don't forget the 3rd letter "R"

Mind you I am possibly blurring the line by what's a system and what's not. Considering my "system" is rules applied to my ratings, is it really a system or is it a systematic form of analysis?

Where's the line?!?! IS there a line?!?!?!?!

We're through the looking glass here people....

I'm a dedicated system player.

I'm not a form analyst.

System players look at chunks of data and determine something that works longterm. Providing there is sufficient data to support the theory, one then tests it in realtime. There is no reason that the system should fall over.

UNLESS:

Reason 1. There was not enough data to begin with.

Reason 2. The rules were so tight or so many, that it gave improper results.

Reason 3. All the profit comes from one or two winners.

I'm amazed when I see systems with more than about 5 rules maximum.

To test the validity of any rule, simply apply it on it's own and see the difference - you'll soon see that half the rules imposed on systems are more about grinding out a profit, rather than seeking one. (retrofitting).

On the other hand we have the nitpickers (oops form analysts).

They tend to disect each race, each runner, each piece of garbled form and rate or pick the best contender.
They have a far greater understanding of the mechanics of racing, but the challenge is to get value. The problem being that the public favourite will more often be their top pick than not, otherwise their analysis is wrong! (in terms of longterm results).

An analyst may be influenced by other factors, but I believe has a greater chance of picking the winner of race A than the system player, but longterm the system player has a better chance of making a profit providing his data has enough substance to it.

Don't want to stir up trouble, it's just my view.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

With any system I have come across (and I have over 250 of them) too much logic has been left out and really needs some further analyisis.
For example .In short distance races a set of system rules may point to horse A but going deeper in the analyisis you may find the horses normal racing pattern is as a backmarker with the highly liklleyhood of being checked /blocked /having to race wide etc etc

Hi Darky,

Yes many commercial systems are retrofitted like hell with very strict rules for many of them. Then they are marketed and almost always fall over.
Not because every man and his dog (excuse the pun) are using them, but because the rules were flawed to start with.

Then the common misconception becomes "systems don't work". Only because the marketed one's either don't have enough data, are based on one or two longshots, or are put in a vice to squeeze out what looks like a good result.

Glossy brochures rarely give a FULL breakdown of system performance, nor do they tell you if you take out the two longest priced winners, it shows a loss.

The little system we talked about off forum continues to show profit and you can take out 20 of the longest priced winners and still show a profit.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

What was that one? What was it? Tell us! Tell us! Aaw go on, tell us! Aaw, you're mean....

Duritz,

Yeah guess it was a bit mean of me, but I can't post the rules because it's a system which people pay good money for.

It's based around fitness, form and market price.

I.E. Very fit, very good form, well in the market.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg