The plan is still going very well , it has managed to double the bank in the last 14 days, betting every day.
I have experienced only one lot of 9 outs in a row & this was easily recovered.

It`s not much point betting these as lay bets because the lay odds will be very short , one has to keep in mind that the shorter the win price the greater the lay price .
E.g. if one wanted to lay a 10/1 horse to loose the lay price would be terrible, because its chance of not winning is very high as opposed to 6/4 chance where its chance of not winning is lower therefore its lay price will be higher.

I hope this answers your question?

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan
Thanks for your insight. I have been having a deco at this. I have gone back to 20 dec and it shows about 60% place winners at about level stakes. With an aggressive staking plan this can get about 15% POT. This maybe a safer option.

Can anyone give me some stats from data base based on favourite $2.8+ at jump more than 7 runners place only and expected run of outs?

Thanks in advance and i hope everyone has a wealthy and healthy New Year.
Regards Beton

The answer to your question

If chasing for the place ,it`s best to keep one`s bets to races with
8-12 runners only.
Test run over 10,000 races
Plc SR 60%
-4% LOT
longest run of outs =8

In races with 8-20
Plc SR 56%
-9% LOT
longest run of outs =9

Cheers

__________________
Cheers.

I forgot to add that the median figure is 5 outs in a row.
That run of 8 outs, only appeared once in every 1000 bets.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan
thanks
I have been analysing this longhand to find a pattern. I have looked at 400 races. There seems to be approx 40% losers 13% consist of one loss followed by a win 11% consist of two losses followed by a win 9% three losses followed by a win. 33%of winners (placegetters) get up next. I am sure these figures would prove to be consistent. My first sample was really good then my second random sample brought in reality. All in all a good pattern is emerging.

I am working to eliminate the bulk of the losers from the betting as chasing them only produces a loss. recovery from the single losses seems crucial. I welcome any advice

regards
Beton

Beton, Your info is interesting! In your post you say "33%of winners (placegetters) get up next". I am presuming that this means consecutive winners (or in this case placegetters) - am I right?
This is the kind of info I was looking for in my post in winning % of favs.

Miamiles

Racing is random. Each race any horse can get up and win. The next race is a new set of criteria. There is hundreds of variables and literally thousands of combinations of those variables. however just as a weatherman can put a thousand variables together and based on past results predict tomorrow's with a fair degree of accuracy, a good punter can predict the winner of the next race.
Those who are not yet good punters or forecasters ie yours truly must rely history. A random series of events will repeat itself over and over changing slightly as the variables change slightly. Historically favorites get up and win 30% of the time and place 60% of the time and are no value as the prices are too short.
Bhagwan showed that by only targeting the upper priced favorites they won 24% of the time. When I looked at this i saw in my sample a high strike rate of placings. I figured that if a pattern was identified and a system was adapted a profit could be made on everyday betting year in year out on any track. I am being convinced as i do so it is a lot of work for very little return.

Having said this the pattern is showing which is that 60% are placegetters.There is good number of losing races followed by a placing race. Then there are lesser percentage of two losing races followed by a placing race. ditto with three and four etc to what will show one eight losers per 1000 bets. On the other side the placegetters are 60% compared with 40% Ie 50% more. Hence more races will have consecative place getters At present this shows 33% of them get up next.

I can eliminate a lot of losses but it comes with a cost. I will see what happens when I finish the analysis

Regards Beton

Place Staking Plan
CRUSHER STAKING PLAN

Increase the Placegetter bet by one unit after each bet that gets up for us , keep doing this until you have broken even or in front.

E.G.
10,10,10,10Place,20,20P,30P ext.

Trying to pick a fixed pattern is like anylising shifting sand.
I feel it`s probable best to except it`s foybles & maybe have a stratergy to deal with it,

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Just did a quick check on yesterdays results using this system
outly $35
profit $16
ROI 46%
longest run of outs was 5
because of the dau night meetings i went race to race link this
ROCKHAMPTON (QR)
MUSWELLBROOK (NR)
COLAC (VR)

untill they were finished then went
CANTERBURY (SR)
MOONEE VALLEY (MR)

you are always going to get variations in this system depending on how people test and at what prices they test with....but as a spot type of play it is very interesting....but would be time consuming watching all the races all day

Interesting figures, Shaun.

Don't like the idea of sitting watching a computer screen all day --- have got other things to do! But, I guess, the figures would hold true anyway even if you were only able to watch, say, 7 instead of 35 races??? In the long run the figures should even out to the same result. Any comment anyone?

After all on a given day there might be only 21 races, whereas on a Saturday there could be 50 or 60 races.