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  #31  
Old 19th November 2008, 10:25 AM
Pauls123 Pauls123 is offline
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Just looking at that site on R&S, interesting statistics there. But I note Doomben fav's have a win strike rate of 29.7%. Am I reading something wrong.?

Paul
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  #32  
Old 19th November 2008, 10:47 AM
weaver00 weaver00 is offline
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Probably not, I approximated figures I was using about 6 weeks ago to make the point, they do fluctuate according to conditions.

I generally look up the latest figures before the days racing, but Doomben was abandoned today.

Robert
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  #33  
Old 19th November 2008, 12:00 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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About a week and a half ago I decided to Field Bet with a max of 11 runners using my friend's loss-chasing staking plan but after a few days I changed my mind and began to lay. Now going through the results since then, Field Betting would be showing a very good profit, not just with Betfair but surprisingly even with the NSW and Qld TABs.

So from today I'll recommence the method and see what happens.
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  #34  
Old 19th November 2008, 01:34 PM
Jack Jack is offline
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For field betting have the percentages been taken into consideration ? What if in the selections you back at $4.00 = 25% and at $4.60 = 22% you have just outlayed 47 units for a return of 100 units meaning 53 units profit (if it wins) which if it were 50 units profit would mean that you would be taking even money ??? Do you agree or disagree ?? With favourites and others outside your selections winning you may possibly experience a run of outs where the staking/target any loss staking method would escalate rather quickly because your combination of bets effectively means that you are taking even money. Can some one prove that I am in error ?
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  #35  
Old 19th November 2008, 01:41 PM
thorns thorns is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
About a week and a half ago I decided to Field Bet with a max of 11 runners using my friend's loss-chasing staking plan but after a few days I changed my mind and began to lay. Now going through the results since then, Field Betting would be showing a very good profit, not just with Betfair but surprisingly even with the NSW and Qld TABs.

So from today I'll recommence the method and see what happens.
What is the loss chasing plan? Or are you keeping tha quiet for the mean time?
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  #36  
Old 19th November 2008, 05:08 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Thorns.

When my friend sent me his printout it wasn't too difficult to calculate his stakings plan. When I told him this he asked me not to reveal it and that he would not show the printout to anyone else. So unfortunately I cannot spill the beans on it.

But I don't think there's anything really special about the stakings plan - the more you lose the higher the jump of the next bet. However, in the early stages of a sequence the size of the bet slowly increases then later on increases expotentially. He lost quite a few banks of $1,000 but every now and then up came a huge divvy that literally won thousands of dollars.

Today I've broken more or less even. I've omitted the fave from each race which has helped. I've only bet on 12 races, and the fave won 4 of them.

I've now again accepted that this is not my preferred type of betting and doubt I will continue.
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  #37  
Old 19th November 2008, 05:45 PM
Crackone Crackone is offline
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Hi Michaelg how about just backing the one's that are paying more than the number of horses in the race???

Cheers
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  #38  
Old 19th November 2008, 06:19 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Crackone.

Not long ago I thought of doing just that but then decided to do the opposite - laying all horses whose price was under the number of starters. For example, if there were 10 starters I would lay all starters whose Lay price was $10 or under providing there was a minimum of three selections.

It began winning but eventually became too topsy-turvy and I stopped, so I would expect backing all horses over the number of starters would be the same. Maybe the stakings plan would be beneficial but at the moment I don't feel comfortable with a loss-chasing plan.

Any more suggestions are welcome.

Last edited by michaelg : 19th November 2008 at 06:22 PM.
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  #39  
Old 19th November 2008, 07:41 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Jack. I've just noticed your post.

No, the percentages are not taken into consideration. Every horse in the race is bet, and regardless of price every horse has the same amount bet on it whether its an odds-on fave or a $1,000 outsider. Its a hit and miss type of betting where it's hoped that an outsider will pop up every now and then, which does happen.
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