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  #11  
Old 10th April 2011, 04:40 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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How best to take advantage of these selections?

At the moment i am dutching for a profit, this means equal profit no matter who wins, sounds simple enough, but what if we have a situation like Black Caviars race where the prices have a huge difference or take today's race Wangaratta race 6 the 2 horses were priced at $3.90 and $17.50 dutching these would return me about $20 profit splitting the stake would return me $9.50 and $77.50 profit.

Big difference on the longer priced runner, is there more options i was thinking maybe bet in units depending on price, your thoughts.
Last edited by Shaun : 10th April 2011 at 04:43 PM.
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  #12  
Old 10th April 2011, 05:49 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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The best way to do this is to work out your confidence on each selection and assign odds to each.

Based on the estimated odds (and assuming they are better then the market) you kelly stake them (or half kelly to be safer).
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  #13  
Old 10th April 2011, 06:16 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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That's not a bad idea, since these ratings are created by my excel sheet and i have no emotional input i could use the rated price but i have no confidence in the section that creates the price so i might convert the strike rate in to the price and kelly stake to that.
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  #14  
Old 10th April 2011, 08:22 PM
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Code:

Cranbourne		Race	6
5. Old Guard		$3.35
1. Reassemble		$3.57
Narrogin		Race	8
1. Lie In Wait		$3.54
7. Movie World		$4.38
Port Lincoln		Race	4
2. Out For Lunch	$2.50 2.75
5. Hightom		$5.65
Port Lincoln		Race	5
2. Roll On Bai		$3.06
4. Dieselfuel		$4.27 3.69
Port Lincoln		Race	8
7. Yarterbery		$2.49
10. Bracken Blue	$6.68
Sunshine Coast		Race	3
1. Ima Joker		$3.45
4. Belletrist		$4.75
Wangaratta		Race	6
6. Nice And Neat	$2.64
8. Private Jeune	$6.39 15.93
Wangaratta		Race	7
17. Lordoftheparrots	$2.68
5. Becqu Adoree		$7.14


Result 3/8
SR 37.5%
Outlay 16
Return 22.37
Profit 6.37
Last edited by Shaun : 10th April 2011 at 08:26 PM.
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  #15  
Old 11th April 2011, 10:54 AM
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Code:

Ararat			Race	3
3. Mister Farinelli	$1.89
8. Sigidas		$6.93
Armidale		Race	7
1. Prussian Secret	$2.13
3. Starlist		$6.98
Armidale		Race	8
11. Usain Prince	$3.66
4. Lohan		$3.74
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  #16  
Old 11th April 2011, 08:47 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Ended up with a 2 unit bet today for a loss
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  #17  
Old 12th April 2011, 11:21 AM
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Code:

Echuca			Race	6
9. Tequila High		$2.03
4. Distillery		$7.29
Townsville		Race	2
4. Foursreal		$3.23
2. Carvelon		$5.26
Townsville		Race	4
3. Matiya's Pride	$2.61
1. Elegant Roi		$6.25
Townsville		Race	6
2. Guru			$3.52
5. Apache Pup		$5.02
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  #18  
Old 13th April 2011, 12:40 PM
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Code:

Echuca			Race	6
9. Tequila High		$2.03
4. Distillery		$7.29
Townsville		Race	2
4. Foursreal		$3.23
2. Carvelon		$5.26
Townsville		Race	4
3. Matiya's Pride	$2.61
1. Elegant Roi		$6.25
Townsville		Race	6
2. Guru			$3.52
5. Apache Pup		$5.02 $4.82

Result 1/4
SR 25%
Outlay 8
Return 4.82
Loss $3.18
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  #19  
Old 13th April 2011, 12:41 PM
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Code:

Balaklava		Race	5
1. Success Dostta	$2.43
11. Goldstinger		$7.30
Balaklava		Race	7
12. Conduction		$2.65
5. She's Good As Gold	$6.18
Canterbury		Race	1
1. Merge		$2.09
7. Jade Tiger		$7.32
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	6
15. Eternal Sunshine	$1.83
10. Count The Diamonds	$8.91
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	7
5. Princess Narine	$3.12
4. Miss Bindi		$3.67
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	8
10. Mr Make Believe	$1.98
9. Akihito		$7.00
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  #20  
Old 13th April 2011, 05:26 PM
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Code:

Balaklava		Race	5
1. Success Dostta	$2.43 $5.72
11. Goldstinger		$7.30
Balaklava		Race	7
12. Conduction		$2.65 $4.48
5. She's Good As Gold	$6.18
Canterbury		Race	1
1. Merge		$2.09
7. Jade Tiger		$7.32
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	6
15. Eternal Sunshine	$1.83
10. Count The Diamonds	$8.91
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	7
5. Princess Narine	$3.12
4. Miss Bindi		$3.67 $3.13
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	8
10. Mr Make Believe	$1.98
9. Akihito		$7.00


Result 3/6
SR 50%
Outlay 12
Return 13.33
Profit $1.33
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