Hi all,

I've been up to my old tricks again looking for ways to improve my results or find more profitable angles. Something I've found is that with my ratings if the BFSP price is within a certain overlay range to my assessed price then it improves the results dramatically. i.e. the following is what I'm talking about:

Betting all selections (TOP 3)
TOP - +7.07 units, 24.76% SR, 3.43% POT, 0.51 Profit/Max Div
2ND - +82.31 units, 19.42% SR, 39.96% POT, 1.48 Profit/Max Div
3RD - +49.21 units, 17.48% SR, 23.89% POT, 3.74 Profit/Max Div

Now if I had only bet those selections if BFSP was less than 2.5x my assessed price:
TOP - +43.14 units, 34.75% SR, 30.60% POT, 5.48 Profit/Max Div
2ND - +48.49 units, 23.72% SR, 31.08% POT, 4.54 Profit/Max Div
3RD - +41.08 units, 18.97% SR, 23.61% POT, 3.50 Profit/Max Div

As you can see it improves the results dramatically both in terms of strike rate and consistency (i.e. profit comes from more resulting bets instead of a single large dividend).

Some of you may remember I looked at this angle a long time ago with my first basic ratings approach and had some success, particularly after reading the Alan Woods interview/article (http://tonywilson.com.au/writing/al...to-riches-story)

What I need to know is from those who use bots (personally created or purchased) is the easiest possible way for me to implement this approach? The main issue being:

Each race is priced differently and therefore the bet/bot needs to take into account my accesssed price when determining if the bet should be placed or not. Most bets allow you to set a basic odds limit like do not bet above $5, but I'm yet to see one that allows you to set something like do not bet above $7.81 for this horse, $9.46 for this horse etc etc.

Is a customized bot/excel setup my only hope? or is there an option I haven't found yet?

I'm pretty keen to get this underway as it seems when my assessed prices are around the mark it proves to be highly profitable (so far - small sample size).

Any help/suggestions appreciated.

Customised bot for sure. BUT you won't know the BFSP until the race commences, therefore, I'd say it's impossible, because you can only specify minimum BFSP price, rather than maximum when actually betting.
It's locked in.
It won't work from my perspective, unless you take a price just before the jump, delays etc will play havoc as will very late liquidity.

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Hey CP,

I figured customized bot would be the only option. What i'm thinking is that I need a bot that will place either a normal exchange bet or a BFSP bet 10 seconds before the off either based on the exchange price or the predicted BFSP price.

I understand this wouldn't then directly align with what I've recorded thus far. However my thinking is that the ones I miss with this process would also be countered by the bets I may gain and overall shouldn't mess with the figures too drastically.

I guess the issue then becomes creating said bot which is another layer of complexity that probably means this isn't a viable approach for me. It's kinda disappointing though, I think it has great possibilities.

Hi Josh,

Is there a sweet spot for your overlay selections?

E.g. Top Pick $3-$6, 2nd pick $5-9, 3rd pick $7-13 etc

Perhaps you could bracket them and run 3 different bots to cater for the different sweet spots?

Just an idea.

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Bet Angel has a Projected SP column in excel continually refreshing and then adjacent, the Actual SP at the start. You could easily write an excel function to work off the Projected SP pre race, or the Actual SP at the jump. No special bot required.

Gruss has the same

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"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
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TS,

Unfortunately field sizes, different levels of class and/or favoritism etc etc means that dollar ranges unfortunately don't work. i.e. you put black caviar in a field of 10, its my top rater I rate it at $1.10 and its paying $1.15 so its an overlay and I want to bet it. But in a different race that day in a field of 10 my top rater is rated at $3.80 but its paying $5.20 and is within the overlay ranges so is a bet. As you can see two fields of 10, different top rater outcomes but both need to be bet, would be a lot easier if dollar ranges did work.

RCP/Shaun,

I did have a bit of a look around at BetAngel and Gruss yesterday. Was hoping to avoid monthly subscription fees if I go down this path but it seems if I want a simplified approach with minimal VBA coding myself within excel then I'd have to bite the bullet and use one of these offers. In an ideal world it would be nice if the excel integration was with BetAngel basic or if you could only pay for that module to make it cheaper, but maybe i'm just a tight ass as well haha.

Thanks for the input guys i'll have to do some thinking around it while I continue to record results and see what path I want to go down. If I elect to go Gruss or BetAngel I may need some assistance from you lads in just setting it up.

Cheers

WHAT!!, you're complaining about 60 cents a day! That's about two sips of beer.

I think I'm the only one using Bet Angel, lot's more Gruss users on this forum. What gets me with BA, is really simple bots have some features that BA doesn't, like results, for example. Also staking based on losses or wins from previous races. You wouldn't think it'd be that hard to implement?

I looked at Bet Angel in the beginning but the pricing wasn't so great or the features back then, not sure what it is now but i have a monthly one with Gruss for a little over $12, not much i can't do in excel have hardly ever used the interface of Gruss, been with them since 2008 so i guess is more a habit,lol.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

haha good point RCP. Might have to use the gruss trial and have a play around with it to see if I can get it running in a trial period and see if it works to what I'm after.

When I first started trialing bots etc a couple years ago I tried BetAngel and it seemed a bit all over the place and more tailored to traders. May have evolved more now though, or maybe my knowledge has evolved more?

Appreciate the input lads, will get back to you when I start a trial with one of them if I need some assistance.

Cheers