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  #271  
Old 26th November 2011, 11:09 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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The Ocho, I agree with your races.

They all have 11-plus runners. However, the scratchings for Ascot are not yet known.
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  #272  
Old 27th November 2011, 07:17 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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A bad day yesterday. Three smiles from four races for a loss of 0.75 units.
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  #273  
Old 27th November 2011, 11:48 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Today's races are:

Grafton
Races 5, 7

Wodonga
Races 7, 9

Swan Hill
R7

Devenport
R9

Geraldton
R7
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  #274  
Old 27th November 2011, 07:44 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Another bad day. Three smiles from five races for a loss of 2.30 units.

I'm not at this time going to continue with the method because I can't often be at my computer. It's still in profit, thankfully.
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  #275  
Old 27th November 2011, 10:51 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Thanks michaelg. It's not in profit for me but thanks for giving this a go.
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  #276  
Old 28th November 2011, 12:15 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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I have been more or less testing a Lay The Field method since last Friday, and have put the lay-bets on early. I'm certain it's won all three days but I don't have any records because I've layed other horses in these races and consequently have not been able to record accurate results.

The following races are the ones I'll be Laying the Field and are the only horses I'll be laying in them so I won't have any problems with determining the results. One or two horses as shown I'll be laying for a liability of $38, and all other horses in the race at $33

Muswellbrook R1
Nos 4, 11 for a liability of $38
All other horses at $33.

R2
No.8 at $38
All other horses at $33

R3
No.8 at $38
$33

R6
No7 at $38
$33

R7
Nos 1, 7 at $38
$33


Warranbool
R3
Nos 1, 5 at $38
$33

R4
Nos 5, 11 at $38
$33

R6
no.4 at $38
$33

R7
nos 4, 8 at $38
$33.

I'm not sure if the 38/33 ratio is acceptable or even if I should alter/reverse it, but because I'm quite certain it has been profitable over the past three days I'll give it a go.

Last edited by michaelg : 28th November 2011 at 12:19 PM.
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  #277  
Old 28th November 2011, 05:13 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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A losing day. However if I had kept to 11-plus runners as I did in the Lay the Fave method like The ocho and I, there would have been 5 races for 4 profitable races. The losing race suffered a loss of $0.16, whilst there was an overall profit of $11.08.

However there were 2 other 11-plus races which I missed listing them here. The first was W'bool R1 for a profit of $4.50, and the second race is W'bool R8 which is yet to be run.

The laying details of this race are:

No.13 - lay for a liability of $38.
All other horses for $33.

Both races that I failed to list here will not be recorded in the results.
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  #278  
Old 29th November 2011, 11:37 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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As yesterday was profitable let's see how it goes today:

Port Mac
R1
Nos 1, 3 -$38
$33

R5
Nos. 4, 13 - $38
$33

R7
Nos. 2, 9 - $38
$33

Mornington
R3
No. 12 - $38
$33

R8
Nos. 1, 4 - $38
$33
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  #279  
Old 29th November 2011, 07:31 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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A losing day. From tomorrow I'll be laying only the top selection for $38. Today would have won about $10.

On checking my results I would have been better of over the four days, and would have won every day. I think this puts better value in the race, but am at this time not sure.
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  #280  
Old 30th November 2011, 11:50 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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From today I'll be laying only one horse for a liability of $38 in the qualifying races, and all the other horses at $33. I had considered laying the selected horse at $44 which is a higher gap ($10 as opposed to $5) but even though the daily profit over the four days would've been higher I'm not yet convinced of any superior value in the long term. It's something I will look at.

Ballarat
1/6
3/11

Canterbury
3/1
6/2
7/11

Dombeen
7/7

Port Lincoln
7/10
8/11

Bunbury
1/11
2/8
4/1
7/2
8/9

Fingers crossed.
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