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  #61  
Old 2nd February 2006, 05:39 PM
crash crash is offline
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XPT

Your post is EXACTLY spot on and how it is for most of us. We hide it and through abnormal ability to concentrate on anything we are interested in, become experts at it. Guess what the first thing is that we [all] become obsessively interested in? Hiding it !!! :-)

I slipped up here because of a booze-up.

PS. the case of your friend's child is a rare case of advanced Autism [not an aspie], who is going to be a burden on the parents for the rest of their life [no fun for the kid either]. A tragedy.

Last edited by crash : 2nd February 2006 at 05:43 PM.
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  #62  
Old 2nd February 2006, 08:27 PM
crash crash is offline
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I should clarify something quickly. Where I said: 'the ability to concentrate' [abnormally] ,doesn't mean that anything I get into [abnormally] I always become good at. I don't. Just if I have also a natural talent in that area too.

Punting : average. Painting 5ys. [even though a bit colour blind] Hopeless, Guitar: Ditto for the effort and years. ect. Some great others not so great. not even if I'm hopeless, I still keep going at it like a rabbit and know I'm hopeless, but can't stop until it runs it's course. Sometimes years, sometimes weeks.
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  #63  
Old 14th May 2006, 01:49 PM
jfc jfc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KennyVictor
At the risk of being seen as a bad loser (or looser in some circles) I consider this a badly worded question. Just the sort of question a study of statistics is likely to engender as we all know statisticians like their figures to mean what the statistician wants them to mean.

Scenario 1. A family has two children and one of them is a girl therefore it is logical to assume one of them isn't. I mean how many non statisticians would say "I have two children, one is a girl and the other is a girl."
So: Answer to the original question 100%

Scenario 2. We see a picture of the unfortunate statisticians children, they aren't attractive, in fact you can't tell what sex they are with their clothes on. The statistician points to one and says 'She is a girl'. What's the other one then we wonder and of course the answer is 50/50 it's a boy since it's a even chance either way.
So: Answer to the original question 50%

The 66% scenario is more of a play on words than a sensible question.

Well, someones gotta be controversial. Crash has dissappeared and P57 has a fortnight in the sin bin.

KV


The important thing in this exercise was that some people should realise they have gaps in their basic probability skills and try to take steps to remedy them, and thus save themselves fiscal grief.

But you cannot resist playing the fool to dumb down this resource even further.

I wonder how much the management appreciate this when they are trying to use this forum to market intelligent rating systems based on mathematical modelling.

As far as I can see Woof's presentation of a classical probability puzzle is correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Woof
You are told that a family has two children. You are also told that one of those two children is a girl.



It is wrong to infer that a parent of the kids told you this.

It is wrong to infer that you were shown a picture of them.

It is also wrong to infer as CP later did, that the firstborn was a girl (or in his argument "a heads").

And it is beneath contempt to try to sabotage a philanthropic effort just because your feathers are ruffled.

As it is wrong for Iomaca to commend both of you in your recalcitrance.

Informing me that he once regularly mentally calculated Harmonic Means does not impress me in the slightest. Aiding and abetting such an orgy of ignorance depresses me considerably.
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  #64  
Old 14th May 2006, 03:44 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
Informing me that he once regularly mentally calculated Harmonic Means does not impress me in the slightest. Aiding and abetting such an orgy of ignorance depresses me considerably.

JFC!
Sadly, I have to inform you that I am not smart enough to calculate the harmonic mean for more than 3 numbers mentally. (I can't keep the results in memory) You must be younger than I thought, otherwise you would know, that there were books of tables for just about anything. We used those to get the numbers.
Disagreeing with someone, does not mean dismissing other's ideas! At least, it should not be.
And please calm down. We are not at war with each other.
All the best to you.

Last edited by lomaca : 14th May 2006 at 04:00 PM.
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  #65  
Old 17th May 2006, 07:46 AM
slowman slowman is offline
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one is too many and a thousand is not enough,perhaps thats why slowmoe does'nt drink.........
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  #66  
Old 22nd May 2006, 07:13 PM
PullTheWhip PullTheWhip is offline
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I think the chance of it being a boy is 2/3.
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  #67  
Old 23rd May 2006, 03:22 AM
OM SHARNTEE OM SHARNTEE is offline
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GREETINGS
Interesting that a MIND game question, can lead to such an opening of HEARTS.

It's obvious that WOOF is not much of a "punter" because he's ----

ASKED A -- "QUINELLA QUESTION" & EXPECTED AN -- "EXACTA ANSWER"
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