Dingo...so your backing on the fact a fav won't win 2 races in a row...interesting

Gday Shaun,

Well,...thats sort of the idea id been playing with.
Like i said, i havent got the flashy computer test capabilities that some have but ive looked at some returns and they can be very high, especially if staked correctly with MASSIVE bank and a longy gets up at 9 or ten, THATS WHAT i was thinking might make it pay, i dont know,...just a thought,

keep an eye on races that fit maybe and have a look for yourself,.......might work. ???


It just seems to me (and this is partly where this idea came from and reading the forum) that when i would go and have an ale or two at the local (and i dont mix punt with ale) that i saw SO MANY "punters" on the fav or second Fav, you know them, "old mate said" and "always back the second horse in the market". Its so intruiging to watch them bet favourites and loose four times in a row and then start putting on trifectas or quinellas to try to recoup the loss, ....then their 1.8 fav comes in and the tri pays $53,

I dont know,....im just a place better.
Cheers dingo

20050110 16:28:33 --> balance : $ 7508.00

================================================== ====

Ok
Had to correct a few things,mainly to do with my own
typing.
Missed a race, so the spreadsheet has been corrected,
the sums now match the logfile from the scanner.


Glitch.
20050108YR09
I have not searched or read a report about that race.
Apparantly it was abandoned, the scanner does
not "know" it was abandoned, so it went ahead and calculated
a bet, "sent" it, and there was no result.
An override thingy fixes these things when it occurs and sums
adjusted accordingly.
In reality, if it was a live bet, the $ would
not have been accepted anyway.

The streak is the important thing to observe.
The scanner was able to scan and log every race today
without a hitch.

Credits.
My programmer.
Mentors and Mathemeticians,
you know who you are !


Thank You.

PS
the yellow section in the spreadsheet is where I found my own typo
errors.

Attached Files

2-4.xls (23.5 KB, 610 views)

Hi puntz,
That was an interesting test.
I note the increase of 3 fold .
I also noted ,that races with fav paying less than the $3.80 were targeted , is there a reason for that?

Hi Dingo Boy,
That`s an interesting angle of yours , I`ll have to research that a little further , I have noted in the past that it is rare for 2 favs get up in a row & this angle has a lot of merit.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

this is meant to be here, don't how it got posted on the other thread.
sorry.


Bhagwan ( got spelliung right this time)

Which race in particular ?

The market prices change every 30 seconds.

I have looked at, "the better time", and well, unless one can have a gigantic database with what-if's and try out every 30 second update,even then that cannot be accurate, and for what reason Vs the time it will take?
Why DO the markets "move"? ( matter of factly)
Is today proposed "movements" going to be better today cos it worked yesterday or the day before ?

My own conclusion came to, "who cares, Heres a race, get it on, win one lose another..win etc...so ya structure a game plan, "how you play".
I asked a proffesional, but retired poker player, he said the same thing.
Cards are cards.A race is a race, deal with it on the moment.

Gut feel has served me better at times thasn stats.

So I chose a time of market prices, weee'll, you tell me what time update ya want, 5 mins, 10, 2 mins prior to race start to make your selections ?
Big question actualy.
When ?

Hi guys,
My paper dutch results for monday, no melbourne as its too hard to pick winners down there.

12 bets, 11 results
out units 600, in units 1017
profit 417, POT 69.5% ???????????

minimum bet 50 units, increase by 100 % on loss, went to 100 units ONCE.

dutching four nags leaving out ANYTHING under 3.8 (4) except the two races the fav came in late on TAb 3.4 and 3.3,

i bet today it blows out badly !


Now thats not even doing it right, ive just divided the number of runners (4) into either 50 units (12.5) or 100 (25), should have done it the percentage way and return would have been better.

?????DINGOBOY????

http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/hedgehog.html


This author here would have a very comprehensive dedge calculator and manuals on dutch betting.
many ideas and variations can be obtained.There is a download of the paperwork if you want to make your own hedge calculator, worth it's salt.

here is just a plain dutch calculator that will produce $100 profit...or $100 return...you make the choice.....and if you want either of those two programs i will make them up in excel if you want

Attached Files

Dutching.xls (21.0 KB, 640 views)

Dingo....what tab were you using for your tests...i checked Unitab and from the 14 races not including Stony Creek i found 2 bets and one of then won so was only 1 winning race

Hi Saun,

NSW TAB about five before jump (or close too it as i work whilst looking).

Here are the "paper" bets, i think they are right

Provincial

Race selections winner $return
1 3,5,6,2 6 8.8
2 no bet
3 6,5,11,4 no
4 no bet
5 5,4,1,3 1 9.3
6 3,4,5,6 5 7.0
7 2,5,7,4 7 4.7

Country
1 11,12,7,4 7 5.7
2 6,5,1,7 5 3.3 (ouch)
3 3,5,6,7 5 9
4 2,5,10,6 10 8
5 1,2,5,11 1 4.7
6 1,5,6,3 3 3.4 (ouch again)
7 1,2,10,8 1 7.3

Sorry about the untidy columns, rush job !

Think this is right, its hard to look, write, listen, write again and serve customers.

cheers