Morning Kiwi!! I WAS on Spuruson and ,surprisingly, Unitab paid better (40.70) than the on-liners. That was a relatively easy one (race 4) as there were only 2 over 20-1. I bet #9 too but don't know what it did. The tougher races at Brisbane were the last two as there were quite a few possibilities. In the end I took 2 runners in R7 after eliminating Gordo (too short;looked like being aimed at longer next time) and Legally Bay (had two runs in Brisbane and now being DROPPED in both class and distance.....a sure sign of Hawkes losing confidence).
Race 8 was just too tough. There were 9 longshots over 20s including the winner and 2nd who both "plummeted" to about 16-1,which was FAR TOO SHORT,by the jump. Don't forget Kiwi that longshot winners are nothing unusual and should be bet if you "suspect" something. When Dane Ripper won the '97 Stradbroke at 40s after Cummings took her from Sydney, it might have been excusable to mumble "how could you expect a 3yo filly to get up at those odds??" but 5 months later when she won the Cox Plate (also at 40s) after another "trip"(to Melbourne that time)no-one had ANY excuse to not be in the queue COLLECTING. Afterwards in the Manikato and The Australian Cup everyone was on her and HAPPY to be taking 2-1!!! Go figure.
Anyway,Kiwi,keep looking at it and good luck next weekend on the TWO big days.

Hi All,

Have read with interest the debate about weight. I think we have moved off the topic some what.

I was on Garry's webpage and he has books, software, systems and ratings. Are they any good? How have the systems really gone? Is the mag any good (got one free at Newcastle races once)?

Cheers,

Hi Napalm,
With GR some of the stuff can be good , but as far as selecting winners , he is no better than others a number of the products are on the pricey side, especially some of the staking plans that use a form of progression & one does not need to spend $900 to do that.
I bought the first software edition of his Power of Ten , was not worth it.
I wish it was was, it well laid out & presented but struggled to break even on a set of figures which break even at level stakes.
The manual version was good thats why I ran with computerised version.

Some of the tools that reframe the market could be good & some tools for Dutch betting could be of interest or useing ratings but one can get these things online at no cost at all e.g.Ozrace tools have a good selectionat no cost at all.

There selection service without fail 7 days a week give out horsesthat were cosistantly veru short , at the time over 3mnths it rarely selected winners paying $3.00+
The results of profit are usually based on best price available for each selection
If selecctons were bet on the TAB , they made a slight loss ar level stakes.

I feel it would be best to do your own thing targetting races with exactly 9 runners only .
Target the top 2 selections of amy tipster e.g. Radio TAB selections from UniTAB are good. & break it down from there mmaybe using the Neurals.

Cheers,
Brian.

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Cheers.

Exactly 9 runners???

Why? What's wrong with 8 or 10?

9 sounds good to me
and nice to see old threads being recycled!

G'day all,

Been AWOL for a while,find this thread interesting and can't help but throw my hat in the ring here.
Baghwan,not nitpicking here but The Power of Ten was by Malcom Knowles,not Gary R.
Can't agree with the general concensus about weight being an irrelevant form factor.
Comparing examples with humans and trains is a futile exercise and has no relevance to the sport of kings.
Someone said there wqas no need for handicapping at all,let's see who the best horse is pound for pound.
That's why there is a handicapper,so the lower class animals can be competetive,class being the key word.
So looking at handicap races only,if a horse is going up in weight by 2kg or more,then the handicapper is obviously telling us it is down in class.
Obversely,if a horse is going down in weight by 2kg or more,he is telling us it is up in class.
So you have to ask the question about the one going up in weight,has it won or placed with this weight(or close to it)in the past?
With the other one,do you think it can handle the class rise?
Have to agree with Chrome,horses going up in weight win more races than those going down.
Also agree with XPT,a lot of them are duds and overbet,especially if last start winners.
As to the key word,CLASS,here is a method I have used with considerable success to determine the class runners in handicap races.
You will need a copy of the Sportsman to do this.
1)Go to the Zipform section
2)Handicap races only
3)Field size 10/14
4)Delete the lowest 3 horses in the average prizemoney column
5)Calculate a sum AVP total of the rest of the field
6)Divide this by the number of runners you have left(after deletions)
7)Once you have this figure,eliminate any runners in the AVP column that don't match or surpass it
8)Eliminate any runner that surpasses it by 1 fluke win in a good race
It,s not infallible,but once you have the class runners,you can do your form study from there.
I tend to focus on the top 5(if there is 5).
My filters are fairly stringent,maybe I'll post the actual method in it's entirety one day.
cheers

Hi All,


Some of you that have been here longer then me might know if punter 57 ever goto to writing his Class thread. If so I would dearly like to read it, would anyone know its link?

Michal

Hi Sportz,
With 8 runners exactly, all sorts of wild things tend to happen. For whatever reason.
I recon one could bet every double digit runner in the race & still be no worse off betting the best form horse in the field , provided there are no odds-on runners in the field.

With 9 runners exactly , one is competing with 8 others.
Must be $3.20+ SP or PP.
The form horses seem to be able to do their thing more.

With 10 runners exactly one is competing with 9 others, a 11% difference.

As a test, run any reasonable selection process over races with exacly 9 runners .

Then do the same with other size fields of 10 & see if there is much difference.

I think one will find the SR slightly higher for 9 runners.

Just for fun, I did this...
I ran over the results for Sat28th Sun29th Mon30th July.
. Races with exactly 8 runners.

. No bet in races where the fav is $2.00 or less.

. Sometimes there were up to 5 horses bet at a time in the same race.

. Betting all runners $10.00+

4 wins from 13 races = 31% SR
O/L 46 ret 56 = Profit +10 = 22% POT
No form - No nothing.

Prices $17.50 10.70 10.70 17.80
Most of the form horses with nostrils flaired & flatulating just before jump , had their butts kicked.

Cheers.

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Cheers.