W924 is right in a way with that advice; bet small if you aren't confident. However this then opens the door to regrets when your system turns into a success, and falls apart when betting bigger. You may discover that "overall' you should have been betting big all along. Anyhow, have a look at Chrome Prince's thread and his Arrows to see how betting "Best Bets" (ie shorties**** is a painfully slow way to make a little or lose a little, while his "longshots" are really doing the job despite the much poorer SR. Had he stayed in last weekend CP'd be even further ahead on the longies system. My experience is that anything mechanical needs a HIGH minimum price to succeed. Set one Mr S(!!**** and you will be both increasing your POT and betting less often (using the same system, that is****. Good Luck.

Not necessarily so - the following are the results of a purely mechanical system that I back-tested for two years before starting to bet on at the beginning of October 2004 and it is still producing the goods without one change to any of its rules.

WIN PLACE
Races Bet : 87 87
Races Won : 34 55
S.R./Race : 39.1% 63.2%
Outlay ($): 87.00 87.00
Return : 109.50 86.92
$ Profit : 22.50 -0.08
% P.O.T. : 25.9% -0.1%
(1/10/04 to 30/11/05 - Dividends as per NSW tote)

With an average winning price of $3.25 it could hardly be claimed that a high winning price is required.

This month there has been only three selections so far:

12/12/2005 Murwillumbah
R5 #13 Hattie Placed $2.30
02/12/2005 Moonee Valley
R4 #1 Tagine Won $2.60 Placed $1.30
02/12/2005 Hamilton
R1 #8 Fanny Won $3.80 Placed $1.50

Very selective with few rules (all logical) but very satisfying.

G'day La Mer
Interesting returns for those that think 1unit/win, 4 unit/place is some sort of magic bullet.
They can't seem to grasp that they are simply betting a percentage of their win bank at level stakes and a higher percentage of their place bank at level stakes.
Both investments, even though on the same horse, have to stand alone.

and what about punter who know that place bet not win but put 1x4 becos he think that it smooth up and downs. when i model this on computer up and downs mostly get much worse with this model.
Thank you. Winston.

Thanks guys, was being tongue in cheek!

Probably did answer my own questions, but was interested
in hearing others thoughts, as I've only recently been seriously getting interested in punting the last 12 months, and am still very much a novice,
but a seriously determined one at that.

Probably my first lesson that I have already brained into myself is..
PLACE BETTING IS FOR MUGS!!!!

I don't record the place return, and will probably never do so on any system
that I create. Some are good at it I will agree. But I reckon when it comes to any system over 100's or 1,000's of bets. The win will out-perform the place return all day long.

Thanks for the tips, taken onboard.

With that statement, you show that you aren't a novice at all

I agree 100%.

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La Mer, I don't doubt (well, maybe I do**** that some "lucky" punters can win betting the shorties (your post 62**** but it's hard to tell what to make of it when the "stats" are presented without the individual results and bets. For example your average win price of $3.25 over 34 winners from 87 bets (= $110 return**** could be 33 x $2 winners and 1 x $44 winner (also $110 return****, could it not?? The single longshot COULD then be the only winning factor(or not****.
I'm not saying this IS the case but who knows? You DO, but not us. As is well known, stats are very slippery things and don't tell us THIS! See that excellent thread about the "two dead ends" for more!!!!!!!! Have you broken the POT down into individual POTs at certain SP/Tote bet prices,for example? If, of your 87 bets 33 ONLY were on $2 chances (100% success from above example**** and 54 on $44 shots (failure from above example**** then the conclusion would be "the shorter the better"!!! This is NOT an attack but just a warning to anyone contemplating statistical approaches to BE CAREFUL AND CAUTIOUS. As you can see the raw stats COULD be based on two totally different results (ie in one the Longie saved the day ;in the other the host of shorties**** though the temptation to jump to conclusions (ie the AVERAGE winning price was short, therefore the short-priced horses were the cause**** is strong. Anyhow, I was referring specifically to the exposed tipping or system selections often presented on this forum, which we CAN follow. How often have I read HERE that we must be wary of the occasional big priced winner distorting the POT etc etc?? IS THIS TRUE?? I say NO! P57 out.

Punter57, Fair comments, but in fact the longest priced winner was $7.70, the shortest $1.70, while the trimmean was $3.04 (with the trimming of the hightest 10% and the lowest 10%) and the median $2.80.

Over a period of time you have been too dismissive re short-priced runners, THEY ARE the ones to back IMHO.