OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#11

8th October 2013, 08:11 PM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Location: Western Australia

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

You're right Darky, but you need to Lay favourites for a min average price of $3.20 to break even by my rough maths. If you could Lay them for the average Tote price you could make a profit but Betfairs SP/Lay price is nearly always greater, then less the 6.5% commish, you don't stand a chance, otherwise we'd all be doing it. The other alternative is to increase the strike rate to 84% as they quote. Good if it's true?

Interesting, I wonder though do you have any stats if ONLY the favs @$3.20 + are layed?

#12

8th October 2013, 08:19 PM

beton

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

Quote:

Originally Posted by partypooper

Interesting, I wonder though do you have any stats if ONLY the favs @$3.20 + are layed?

Now you are pushing the envelop. This requires someone like UB or CP with a relative database. Betselector won't do it.

#13

8th October 2013, 09:22 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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I can do it but probably not for a few days. I have a couple of other projects I am working on.

#14

8th October 2013, 09:38 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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it got the better of me so I ran it :

It shows an 11% loss laying the fav based on the original rules.

#15

8th October 2013, 09:41 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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in fact swap the rule of laying to backing and you make a 2% profit after commission.

#16

8th October 2013, 09:48 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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Started playing around with the rules:

BACK THE FAV THAT MEETS THE FOLLOWING
LSW
FAV
=>10 Runners
Not Heavy
Age 3 to 7.
Barrier >= 10

Profit of 11.98%

#17

8th October 2013, 10:05 PM

SpeedyBen

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Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 464

UK summary of the rules - shows a back profit

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections	488	131	26.8%	103.7%

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

#18

8th October 2013, 10:39 PM

beton

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Posts: 589

Just goes to show that some of the claims you get bombarded with on a constant basis are not worth the paper they are written on. Barrier =>10 shows that if you in form then you can get across quick enough to negate the draw

#19

9th October 2013, 03:13 AM

SpeedyBen

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Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 464

Beton
I think the UK have standardized on barriers now but until recently each course decided which side barrier 1 would be on. With so many straight races sometimes the low numbers are better and sometimes not. On some big race meetings all winners on the day come from the same side of the draw. I would think that unlikely unless there is a bias of some sort - going, wind, drainage et al. It's a dog's breakfast.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

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