Chrome

What's the US liquidity like these days? Last time I looked it was pretty poor - similar to the NZ markets.

Can you make a decent buck there?

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Isn't this why we use a confidence intervals.
The larger the sample the less the interval (+/-)

Liquidity is fine except for the outsiders, or those outside the top few prices.

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Not too sure about any of that Vortech, never really looked at it - personally I don't proceed with any method/system until I have a substantial result set that passes a chi-test & plots a positive bell curve.

Do you have an example of how the chi-test works?

Here ...

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...74&postcount=30

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Using my test sample

You have 30 winners from 50 selections

30 winners, 20 losers. Avg Dividend $4.00
Expected number of winners is 1/4 = 0.25
Normalise the market to from 115% is 0.25/1.15 = 0.21739

50 Selections so multiply by 0.21739 to get the expected winners

Gives 10.87 winners expected

Expected losers is 50 - 10.87 = 39.13

Observed winners = 30 A1
Observed losers = 20 B1
Expected winners = 10.87 A2
Expected losers = 39.13 B2

Put this into excel as CHITEST =CHITEST(A1:B1,A2:B2) on get something like 0.0000005%

Are these the chances of the system continuing? I'm very interested in hearing others thoughts

Even making the Avg Dividend like $3.00 more realistic is still giving a very very low %

No it's the chance that the observed results where not due to luck. Frankly though you don't need a Chi-Test to tell you that 60% winners at ave div of $4.00 isn't due to luck

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

So what is a punter trying to achieve from these results. More confidence in a system long term with a higher % from the Chi-Test?

More confidence with a low %. The lower the % the less chance the results were due to luck.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash