 |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
#1
20th April 2006, 04:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
losing streak
How do I calculate my losing steak based on a strike rate of 34%.
mad gambler 
|
|
#3
21st April 2006, 09:39 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Bhagwan, Your answer is too simplistic - the run of outs of 16 can only be in reference to the number or bets - do you mean a run of outs of 16 in a 100, 200, 300? The expected run of outs is dependent on the number of bets, eg. if there are 10,000 bets then there is 56% probability that there will be a run of outs of 20 but only 42% probability that there will be a run of outs of 21; if there are 1,000 bets then there is 63% probability that there will be a run of outs of 14 and a 48% probability that there will be a run of outs of 15; if there are 100 bets then there is 54% probability that there will be a run of outs of 9 but only 40% probability that there will be a run of outs of 10.
|
|
#4
21st April 2006, 01:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
This might be more helpful : LLS = longest losing streak.
For a Win % of 34.0% over 100,000 trials, the expected LLS are ... Exp # of LS of length 5 is 4258 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 6 is 2810 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 7 is 1855 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 8 is 1224 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 9 is 808 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 10 is 533 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 11 is 352 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 12 is 232 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 13 is 153 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 14 is 101 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 15 is 67 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 16 is 44 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 17 is 29 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 18 is 19 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 19 is 13 Prob of one or more LS is 100.00% Exp # of LS of length 20 is 8 Prob of one or more LS is 99.98% Exp # of LS of length 21 is 6 Prob of one or more LS is 99.60% Exp # of LS of length 22 is 4 Prob of one or more LS is 97.38% Exp # of LS of length 23 is 2 Prob of one or more LS is 90.96% Exp # of LS of length 24 is 2 Prob of one or more LS is 79.54% Exp # of LS of length 25 is 1 Prob of one or more LS is 64.91% Exp # of LS of length 26 is 1 Prob of one or more LS is 49.90% Exp # of LS of length 27 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 36.63% Exp # of LS of length 28 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 25.99% Exp # of LS of length 29 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 18.02% Exp # of LS of length 30 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 12.29% Exp # of LS of length 31 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 8.29% Exp # of LS of length 32 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 5.55% Exp # of LS of length 33 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 3.70% Exp # of LS of length 34 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 2.46% Exp # of LS of length 35 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 1.63% Exp # of LS of length 36 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 1.08% Exp # of LS of length 37 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.71% Exp # of LS of length 38 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.47% Exp # of LS of length 39 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.31% Exp # of LS of length 40 is 0 Prob of one or more LS is 0.21%
|
|
#6
21st April 2006, 05:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Go to http://twonix.com/ & download the risk or ruin calculator (link found in left-hand menu bar).
|
|
#8
22nd April 2006, 05:14 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
La Mer, I'm not sure if it was you who mentioned it, but the guy who wrote the software for that ROR calculator was supposed to be developing software that would auto place a bet on a selection[s] if a certain price range was available a few min. before the jump with the TAB [or whoever]. Was that you and if so have you heard anything more about it? Thanks.
|
|
#9
22nd April 2006, 07:54 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Crash, Nick Aubrey is the guys name - he's the brains, the other Nick is the software developer. Visit the site mentioned earlier in this thread & you can read all about their software.
|
|
#10
22nd April 2006, 05:01 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
simple formula
Win%=34
Loss%=66 LOSSES CONFIDENCE: 5 87.48% 6 91.73% 7 94.54% 8 96.40% 9 97.62% 10 98.43% 11 98.96% 12 99.32% 13 99.55% 14 99.70% 15 99.80% 16 99.87% 17 99.91% Use the first 99% Formula = 1-(Loss% ^ Losses) for excel users example 1-(.66^12)=99.32%
|
 |
| Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
| Display Modes | |
|
|
Linear Mode
