A couple of less likely candidates are running today:

LOOKS LIKE ELVIS	YTPFBC	Cranbourne - Race 9 - 5:10PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)
LORD FANDANGO (GER)	YTPFBC	Cranbourne - Race 9 - 5:10PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)

The second wave of internationals arrived yesterday afternoon and are settled in for a 2 week stay in quarantine. They are able to run from October 26th (Cox Plate day):
Cross Counter³
Marmelo⁵
Southern France⁷
Master Of Reality⁹
Il Paradiso¹¹
Latrobe¹²
Ispolini¹⁶
Magic Wand¹⁸
Hunting Horn¹⁹
Twilight Payment²⁰
Downdraft³⁸


No good result for today's Cup nominees running in the Cranbourne Cup. It was taken out by Dr Drill with nominees Looks Like Elvis finishing in 8th, one place ahead of his fellow Lord Fandango.


It was reported that Steel Prince has sustained no long-term injury following x-rays after his scratching yesterday. As anticipated, his next race will either be the Geelong or Moonee Valley Cups.

The Chosen One has received a measly 0.5kg penalty following his win in the Herbert Power Stakes. That seems to imply that, per the handicapper, only he and Prince of Arran are any good and the rest who participated in the race are rubbish.

As noted, the win meant he passed the first ballot clause and - with the extra 0.5kg - is now set to carry 52kg in the Cup, currently lying at 37th in the Order.

The updated Order of Entry is available here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-14



Competing in Wednesday's Coongy Cup (which gives ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup) are Melbourne Cup nominees:
TOP OF THE RANGE⁶⁴
WOLFE⁶²

Here is an update of the standings in 'the system' following the weekend's racing. Pretty tight at the top!

Horse	Order	Total	Less than 8yo	Wgt < 57kg	Not a mare	<= $21 SP	< $16 in last	Weighted lower	FS in last >= 10	Won Black Type	<=3L in last	<6 victories
ISPOLINI (GB)	16	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
FINCHE (GB)	25	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	1=	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)	9	9	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)	10	9	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)	28	9	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	59	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
HOMESMAN (USA)	6	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	40	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)	45	9	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
MUSTAJEER (GB)	14	9	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
VOW AND DECLARE	38	9	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	37	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
JUST THINKIN'	YTPFBC	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
MIRAGE DANCER (GB)	8	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)	20	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
LATROBE (IRE)	12	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
MARMELO (GB)	5	8	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0
SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)	7	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
MER DE GLACE (JPN)	YTPFBC	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)	41	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)	53	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
NEUFBOSC (FR)	35	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
ZACADA (NZ)	54	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	65	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
WOLFE (JPN)	64	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
SUPERNOVA (GB)	61	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
FAIRLIGHT (IRE)	YTPFBC	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
GOLD MOUNT (GB)	29	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
AVILIUS (GB)	4	7	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
CROSS COUNTER (GB)	3	7	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
DOWNDRAFT (IRE)	39	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
MR QUICKIE	24	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
TRUE SELF (IRE)	44	7	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	47	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0
HUMIDOR (NZ)	YTPFBC	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0
ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)	15	7	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
SHRAAOH (IRE)	30	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
ANGEL OF TRUTH	13	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
HAKY (IRE)	52	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	1=	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
YUCATAN (IRE)	22	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
MUNTAHAA (IRE)	23	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
SULLY (NZ)	63	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
SUPER TITUS (GB)	YTPFBC	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
ETYMOLOGY	56	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
BIG DUKE (IRE)	32	7	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
SIR CHARLES ROAD	46	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0
LORD FANDANGO (GER)	YTPFBC	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	YTPFBC	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
RED GALILEO (GB)	48	6	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1
IL PARADISO (USA)	11	6	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
HUNTING HORN (IRE)	19	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
RED VERDON (USA)	27	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
RED CARDINAL (IRE)	YTPFBC	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
MAGIC WAND (IRE)	18	6	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
DAL HARRAILD (GB)	49	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
GLORY DAYS (NZ)	31	6	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
TRAP FOR FOOLS	21	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
LOOKS LIKE ELVIS	YTPFBC	6	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
SOUND (GER)	36	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
SWEET THOMAS (GER)	55	6	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	17	6	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
YOUNGSTAR	33	6	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)	42	6	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0
AZURO (FR)	57	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
QAFILA	26	6	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)	YTPFBC	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
HANG MAN (IRE)	YTPFBC	6	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)	YTPFBC	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
VALAC (IRE)	60	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)	YTPFBC	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
TORCEDOR (IRE)	34	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
GREY LION (IRE)	50	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
ALFARRIS (FR)	YTPFBC	5	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
ATTENTION RUN (GER)	66	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)	62	5	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
SCARLET DREAM	43	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1
OUR CENTURY (IRE)	51	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0
BONDEIGER	58	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0

Some of these don't apply at the moment unless they don't race again:

< $16 in last
Weighted lower
<=3L in last
FS in last >= 10

I assumed Weighted lower was weighted lower than last start.

These 4 will make a huge difference when they all compete against each other in the standard lead up races.

Yep, exactly right; that's why they're changing from week-to-week after the most recent races. It'll be interesting to see how much movement there is from the first list to the last; there hasn't been much so far. And of course, there's a few horses we know won't run 'til Cup day and can roughly see where they're going to be ranked (Ispolini is going to be in the first bunch; Cross Counter isn't, for example).


I see that Prince of Arran's odds have come in on some sites and now also has a score of 10.

Can't see it announced anywhere yet, but with my 1337 hacking skillz (i.e. typing a different date into the URL), here is the Order of Entry list following second acceptances: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-15

There's 64 remaining in the running for a Melbourne Cup berth. We say a sad farewell to:
Trap For Fools (formerly at #21)
Torcedor (#34 - out for the Spring)
Scarlet Dream (#43)
Our Century (#51)
Zacada (#54)
Sweet Thomas (#55)
Bondeiger (#58)
King of Leogrance (#65)

And also from those who were yet to pass the first ballot clause:
Lord Fandango
Fairlight
Hang Man
Just Thinkin'
Looks Like Elvis
Super Titus
Te Akau Caliburn
The Good Fight


It was announced yesterday that Raymond Tusk was skipping the Caulfield Cup to focus on the Melbourne Cup. He was at 28th in the Order at the time, so I figured they were confident he was going to get a start after asking around and determining several were likely to drop out today. He's still only at 27th though with plenty of opportunity for others to leap him. It's a bit of a gamble...

I'm sure a couple will drop out and have just paid the extra few thousand as insurance if something goes awry for them ahead of the Caulfield or Cox (like it did for Steel Prince last week).

I understand that if your in the top 15. But 27th is crazy and very likely to miss out.

Ispolini has been sitting on top of 'the system' rankings and will still be there come raceday, given that he's not expected to have a lead-up run ahead of The Cup. There's actually some sub-sorting of those horses on equal scores that has heretofore gone unmentioned. Those with a weight advantage are listed foremost. Cross Counter has a 118 handicap from the British Horseracing Authority and Ispolini has 115. That means that the latter should carry 1.5kg less than the former. Instead Ispolini carries 55kg to Cross Counter's 57.5kg. 6 horses of the current top-24 have a weight advantage (with respect to Cross Counter) and only Master of Reality (-2kg) and Il Paradiso (-1.5kg) fare better than Ispolini does.

A more direct comparison between Ispolini and his stablemate Cross Counter can be made: they faced each other in Cross Counter's first race following his 2018 Melbourne Cup victory: the Dubai World Cup. Held over 3200m the two were at level weights with Ispolini finishing just 1.25L behind: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q&t=1s. Also in the race was Gold Mount (8.25L back), Red Galileo (31L back); and Prince of Arran (31.25L back) - each carrying 2.5kg extra. Ispolini now has a 2.5kg swing in his favour in the Melbourne Cup.

I've said that unlike previous years I've struggled to identify a run that got me excited. Maybe it's this one by Ispolini, his race prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf0mhcEXq7Y. He beats 2nd - Red Galileo again - by over 10 lengths. It's still over a second outside of the track record (by Almoonqith) but he does it very easily.

Less impressive was his return to England following his UAE campaign, the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1129387744101314561. He's well-beaten by Stradivarius (fair enough) but also Southern France - and the latter gets a further 2kg in his favour in the Melbourne Cup. Was Ispolini's performance here too bad to be true? It was a big drop from what was shown in Meydan and he was sent for a spell afterwards, so perhaps. The Racing Post has it that the race was 5secs slower than par, so he might not have been suited by the race shape either.

He most recently resumed in Dortmund at the Deutsches St Leger, taking out the win but not putting paid to his competition. The rest of the first 4 were rated at 107 going into the race (2nd placegetter Djukon carried 4kg less, in his second career start, otherwise they were at equal weights). It looks to be on a par with his Yorkshire Cup Stakes performance. Instead of asking what went wrong there, it might be better to ask what went right in Meydan? Over there he was 2 wins and 2 seconds from 4 starts. His remaining two career wins were his maiden (on All-Weather for a purse under $10k) and what looks a middling performance in Dortmund. With such inconsistency it would have been very helpful to see him have a run in Australia ahead of the big dance....

His Dosage Profile is (2-16-13-10-1) with Points Across The Board. His DI is 1.4 and Cd is 0.19. This would suggest a most suited distance of around 3000m. His Conduit Mare Profile is very symmetrical: (7-7-4-7-7) with Speed and Stamina both 14, a Conduit Index of 1 and Triads (18-18-18). This is very atypical for a Melbourne Cup runner, just over 5.5% of those this century have a Speed figure greater than or equal to their Stamina figure. The best finisher of these was Criterion (3rd in 2015), then Big Duke (4th in 2017). 2015 was a sit and sprint/demolition derby and one could argue that there are few conclusions that can be drawn from it. And Big Duke was a freakish outlier compared to the others of this group as his Stamina points mostly came from the Professional category: he had 11 whereas the next highest had 6.

Also having a huge points total in the Professional category (11) was Rekindling. He was the winner with the lowest gap between Speed (16) and Stamina (18) so far this century. One could argue his victory also had a lot to do with him receiving a handicap that was too friendly.

I liked Ispolini going into this profile but now I'm not so sure. I certainly don't like his Conduit Mare figures. I also think he would have been better suited by a local run or two. If he brings his Meydan form he's certainly not without hope, but it seems likelier that he'll be 5-7 lengths or so off the pace, given his last couple of runs. Horses have finished 3rd through 17th within that range, so it depends on your faith in 'the system' as to where you think he'll end up.