After reading a bit about horses resuming in several other topics i wondered what the results would be if we only have one qualifier per race.

So this is bsaed on just 1 horse being first up. If there are two races resuming from a spell, the race is excluded. So naturally there would only be a few races selected a day.

Today:

Pakenham:

Race 2) #8 unplcaed
Race 4) #9 1st $70.60, $10.40

Cessnock:

Race 2) #2 1st $4.80, $1.80
Race 8) #6 unplaced

now 2/4 strikerate is pretty good (excluding odds) so ill be looking at this in the future for sure.

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dam you oaky you got it ....dash it all against the stone wall ,,,lol

I read somewhere that the vast majority of races 1200m or less are won by 1st uppers?

Pakenham Race 4 was a 1750m race in a decent sized field.
And the other winner was at 1350m
The two losses, 1350, 1000m

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Oaksnaf, fair comment , but remember what I am talking about is 20,000 races plus not a couple of weeks, there will always be those amazing anomalies (spelling) I'm not saying that you haven't cottoned on to something, only that the proof is in the eating.... shall we say!!!!

Partypooper dont this personaly but statements like that annoy me.

Heres why,races over 1200m or less have an awful lot of horses resuming in them,its no surprise that they win their fair share....


Your statement is true but it means nothing when it comes to punting,its akin to the 21 days or such since last rule that most people also put too much stock in.

i note that Oaksnaf said the big winner was in a 1750m race,i wonder how many horses resume from a spell in races over a distance like that,not many i'd say and from a punting perspective it is an interesting angle to follow.

if we look at the other maidens run at pakenham that day we had one for 3yold's only, 2 1000m sprints & the 1750 lottery that the 1st upper won.

it would appear that the trainer considered the 1750 more suitable than either of the 1000's, maybe there had been setback of some sort so he missed a more suitable race a week or 2 earlier, then put plenty of work into the nag, but the real question is - was there any stable support? it would appear not, meaning the win was most likely simply a fluke, or considering this was only it's 2nd start after a 18 month layoff, maybe its got a smidgin of ability & could easily account for the rest of the no-hopers.

not wanting to suggest there is not an opportunity to be had backing 1st uppers, just that those that commence of such distances would almost certainly have an abysmal record, not that you need to many to win at those odds.

it would appear that the trainer considered the 1750 more suitable than either of the 1000's

I wonder if it was in preparation for a longer distance race, or simply a big workout to get it race fit for a shorter distance race next time out?


was there any stable support?

hard to say really..it could have been a mistake, however, with the different off course betting facilities on offer now, at that price you wouldnt need to spread much off course in order to get a great collect...

Mistakes do happen. I backed a horse back in the mid 1980's at around 70-1 and it beat the fave Lets Get Physical. I cleaned up big time, only to hear weeks later that the connections of the winner didnt have a red cent on it...

First up over that sort of distance is more in line with Northern hemisphere racing imo, and we may get to see more of that perhaps...

someone here's got a darn Mill Stone to cast for some reason,( where's the moderator?) exactly what I said one big priced winner first up over 1750, may be repeatable, but the proof is down the line. i.e. we haven't seen any yet!!

Oaksnaf, I wasn't having a go at you by the way just reminded me of something I read about 1st uppers over 1200 or less, and as Dale said many races have 4 or so 1st uppers, so that's a vaild point as well. I wasn't suggesting that just by backing all 1st uppers over 1200 or less would show a profit, it was merely throwing in food for thought. But got MORE ex****nt thrown back by the "Pain".

Oh no, i know that. I was just saying what distances today's horses ran/won at. It probably came across i was trying to imply something. But i was just stating the distance they ran at, not saying what you said is untrue.

But i have done a backtrack since Friday, and there is a handsome 500% profit after 20 selections. I will certainly keep you up to date.

Today;s races

Hamilton:

Race 5) #7

Grafton:

Race 8) #12

Only two selections via looking at the form guide from the Herald Sun.

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