Opening prices as an indicator of value.
The tote win prices is a very good judge of the finish. Year in year out it produces results that are true to the individual rankings chances. In the case of the starting fav the SP produces a result that is almost even less the TAB take and breakage.
The winner is in the top 4-5 lines of betting. It is also in the top 5 prepost. and in the bookie's openers. However the order is the thing that eludes us.

Much has been written and researched using the SP as a guide to find placing horses and value in them. The trouble with this is that many people do this and programs have been written and in use to capitalise on any overlay.

The thing with the SP is that it is not finalised until long after the race has started. I consider the fav SP as the best indicator for value in the rest of the field. It is the best indicator for the fav when odds on. Odds on - sit on.


Prepost is computer generated and has been shown as too erratic. So that leaves Ratings which you generate yourself or are freely available or purchased. These in general are a rehash of what shows up in the betting. My apologies to those that rate and win, I dip my hat to you. And it leaves the openers ( and the bookies prices after they have settled)

CP has said that in the past Mark Read openers were a country mile above the pack. But this needed being with IAS. There is concern with the continuity of the same standard.

I have decided that the bookies openers are the place to start on this exercise. This calls for a representative sample (a year if possible) of bookies prices and the resulting tote prices. This will allow me to see how many shortened and won, how remained top ranked and how the others faired. I think that there will be more value in the other rankings. It will allow me to cross reference to the final result and see if there is any value.

Longwinded but I wanted to explain myself before my request.

Has anybody have a list of openers and tote results? I would love a copy to save time. I will share any findings. Similarly I will appreciate any comments responding to this. You can send direct wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au

Thanks Beton

I was collecting a bookies price and tote prices but it isn't openers. Its just before the race starts.

Final price is by far the best indicator as you have stated. Many of the successful syndicates use final price very close to the jump and make adjustments based on form analysis they have found to be useful. In these ways they can try and create slight overlays in the final odds prices and only take those that are a very small overlay.

They make big money long term ... so if I was you and I was going to start looking anywhere it would be around what they do and basing my ratings on slight adjustments and placing the bets in the fixed market on the overlays.

During the spring Dom Beirne wrote that early money is just static, late money is gold.

is this what you want Beton this race is 5th april friday

cheers Rick

KYNETON WEATHER: Fine, TRACK: Dead4

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RACE 7 (16:40) - SPORTSBET.COM.AU TOP TOTE PLUS 0 - 58 (1469MM) (BETTING IS CLOSED) Result Horse Name Best Fluc SP NSW UNI STAB 1st 6. Sweet As Bro 2.80 2.70 2.70 - 1.50 2.40 - 1.30 2.70 - 1.30 2nd 10. Bowtale 6.40 7.70 6.10 3rd 4. Buzz Box 3.10 2.40 2.30 Form Fluctuations FIXED PRICE Horse Name TOPDIV BEST FLUC 916 4.2, 6, 6.5, 6 5.50 7. ADELPHI (9) 57.5kg N ROSE TopDiv 749 14, 18, 19, 21 26.00 9. AFFECTIONATE ONE (2) 55.5kg A CREIGHTON TopDiv x98 31, 41, 31, 26 26.00 10. BOWTALE (1) 54.5kg R BOOTH TopDiv 498 5.5, 8, 8.5, 9 10.00 4. BUZZ BOX (8) 59.0kg R BRADLEY TopDiv Scr 5. LA TERREUR 2x3 20, 21, 18, 16 16.00 11. MARMEGLEON (3) 54.0kg C DOWNIE(A) TopDiv Scr 1. MISSED 518 5, 8.5, 8, 8.5 9.50 3. OUR LEGEND (6) 59.5kg L MEECH TopDiv 942 2.7, 3.7, 3.8, 4 4.40 2. SET TO POUNCE (10) 60.0kg L SMITH TopDiv 7 2.6, 2.7, 2.8, 2.7 2.50 6. SWEET AS BRO (5) 58.5kg N HALL TopDiv 697 31, 41, 51 51.00 8. TEN BELLS INN (7) 56.0kg MATTHEW GATT TopDiv Sort by Number Sort by Name Quote Others - Win Only

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I agree entirely, but that's only half the equation.

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Late money is gold ?? for whom ?? is he implying that the late money is good for the bookies pockets ??

Barny, he is referring to the overall accuracy of results to price plus over round.

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[QUOTE=trifectaric]is this what you want Beton this race is 5th april friday

cheers Rick

Rick
This is the info I need. But I need a lot and I need to be able to get it into excel. I will take any info in any format and wade through it.

UB. The first thing I have to do is recognize who and what I am. Whilst knowing that the last minutes before the jump is the best time to work from, I am not someone that can and will sit there race for race. Punting is something that I do between other things which have more importance. Hence if I am going to put some effort into something then it has to be something which suits me and will allow me to spend a block of time and set my bets and forget. Or in another case have them so that they can be placed if certain criteria is met.

The first step is a selection criteria. For me that is to find the SP fav snd the next 3 favs. Then it becomes number crunching based on the fav's SP. Then there is a matter of setting the bet when we get an overlay.

If this ends up having to be done in the last 5 minutes before the jump so be it. At least we will know what to do
Beton

Beton could you please send me an email at trifectaric@gmail.com

as i cannot work out where to send the info to thanks Rick.

you can go back with the prices to 2010 up till now2013. Rick

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email sent Beton

cheers Rick

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