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  #1  
Old 19th October 2009, 03:27 PM
jackact jackact is offline
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Question Maidens having 2nd start, Database help

I seem to be getting enough long shots to make this pay, but would really appreciate help from someone with a Unitab database to check it out longer term:
-All Maidens 1400m and shorter,
-No more than two first starters in the race,
-The selection is the best Unitab rated of those having their second start. If two or more equal ratings, skip the race.
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  #2  
Old 20th October 2009, 04:17 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Is that 2nd career start
or
2nd start after a spell?
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  #3  
Old 20th October 2009, 07:02 AM
jackact jackact is offline
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Smile

Yes, Bhagwan, second career start. So on Unitab site, would show either as just one number e.g 5, or 5X if the horse had one start and then a spell.
Sorry I didn't make it clear.
Regards,
Jackact
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  #4  
Old 20th October 2009, 10:28 AM
crash crash is offline
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Ratings for a 2nd start horse would be based on what? Their 1st. start, breeding or how much was paid for the horse at sale? All notoriously unreliable rating data, so any rating would have to be a bit of a guess.

Very few maidens win their second start. So long term you would need a very good average win price to come out in front wouldn't you?
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  #5  
Old 20th October 2009, 11:34 AM
jackact jackact is offline
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Agree, Crash, I do need the occasional long shot. I don't really know on what Unitab (AAP?) base their maiden rates. I assume it is class of maiden, beaten margin.
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  #6  
Old 23rd October 2009, 10:40 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Thanks for that Jackact.

It looks promising on past results.

Right!
I know I am changing the original rules here, but here goes.

I'm going to back all maidens that are having their 2nd career start in that distance range & make a fortune.

Stick your own personal filters over it.(Optional)

If more than one , bet the lot.

I'm going to be rich...so be warned.
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  #7  
Old 23rd October 2009, 04:30 PM
jackact jackact is offline
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Thanks, Bhagwan, I am encouraged by your enthusiasm. Lets know how you are going, say after a month. (If it goes as well as you expect, I guess you will be replying from Tahiti or similar!)
Jackact
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  #8  
Old 23rd October 2009, 07:31 PM
crash crash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan

I'm going to be rich...so be warned.


Today:

Bathurst
1/3,4 [unp]
3/12 [unp]
4/8 [unp]
Benalla
1/5,7,8,13, [5 win 11.80]
2/8 [unp]
5/1 [unp]
COFFS HARBOUR
3/5,7 [unp]
TOOWOOMBA CUSHION
1/2.3.4.6,8 [6-2nd. rest unp]
2/3,4 [unp]
WYNDHAM
1/7,10 [unp]
2/5,8 [5-unp., 8-2nd]
3/1 [unp]

out=24, in=11.80, loss=12.20
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  #9  
Old 23rd October 2009, 08:08 PM
Ill Get There Ill Get There is offline
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think hes only having a lend of yas...pullin ya leg lol

notorious for that e is
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  #10  
Old 24th October 2009, 12:07 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Failed one day lets chuck it in the bin.
One day means nothing.
Seeing that someone is fishing for a negative (Friday 23rd) , lets plonk in a positive to reflect a little balance.

One of the rules observed was , no bet in races with 4+ first starters.
1400m & less.
Yesterdays results (Thurs 22nd)

Ipswich
1/ 8 9 11 ---$83.70
2/ 11 ----Loss

Hawk
3/ 5 8 13 14 ---$3.30
8/ 10 11 ---L

Ballarat
2/ 6 7 10 ---$10.80
3/ 9 13---L

Geraldton
1/ 4 8 12 ----$28.30
4/ 5 -----L

Out-- $19.00
In ----$126.00
Profit $107.00

Even with that $83.70 winner taken out, it would still have shown a +$23.30 profit.
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