Though Prince Of Arran is returning for the Cup this year, this is the first time I've written a profile on him. I was pressed for time on Cup-eve last year and he was one of the few I skipped. I figured that he'd be too fatigued from the Hotham Handicap win that got him into the field to do well. He, of course, went on to run third. I missed picking him as a candidate, but the all-powerful 'system' had him right up there....

He finished two lengths behind Marmelo in 2018, with Cross Counter a further length in front. There was 2kg officially between Marmelo's and Prince Of Arran's handicaps but Hugh Bowman, jockey of the former, weighed one kilo over - so there was really a 3kg discrepancy. Following the Prince's penalty from the Geelong Cup victory yesterday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OlSi8tajzw), the weight difference will be 2kg again this year. I've written about how it appears that Marmelo is doing just as well as he was last year, so the question with regards to Prince Of Arran is: has he gotten four lengths better? (the two lengths he lost by + the 1kg extra he'll be carrying this year compared to Marmelo).

The easy - but unhelpful - answer is: well, he won't have to run 2500m three days before the Cup this time! So: maybe. Probably. Ummm...surely?

His final race before leaving for Australia last year was in the Heritage Handicap. Per the British Handicapping Authority he ran a 111 BHA Performance Figure while having a 107 rating. Following his Australian success he then galloped across the globe, in Hong Kong and the UAE before returning to the UK. They bumped him up to a 110 rating on arrival but his two performances there were adjudged to be at 108 level (plus a shocker on resuming which can be discounted). Long story short: they think he's ballpark of where he was last year: somewhere between 3 points better by rating, and 3 points worse than his peak performance.

In Australia last season he got a 104 rating for the Herbert Power and Hotham Handicap and a 105 in the Cup. Following the Geelong Cup it looks like his interim handicap has been raised to 108. So they reckon he's 3 points better than he was here last year - only they rated him 3 points lower than his UK rating to begin with.

He's certainly seemed to have shown his best on Australian tracks (5s:2w-3p). He's contested the Herbert Power both years, so some comparison can be made. This year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4) with 58kg he ran 2435m in 2'27.61s, with his last 3 200m sectionals in 12.06s, 11.64s, and 12.36s. Last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4GojR1Bxew) he carried 1kg less and ran 2433m in 2'26.77s, with the last 3 sectionals in 11.60s, 11.37s, 11.56s. Last year's performance looks better, but perhaps it was more due to how the race unfolded, rather than a direct measure of performance...

There are a few concerning stats from his profile: 0 wins from 11 Group 1 and Group 2 starts; has only won on Good, or All-Weather back in 2015/16; has had 11 starts in fields greater than 13 for no wins and only 3 placings. All his wins have been at low prices: the highest was $8 all the rest were under $5. On the positive side: he does have a decent record at 3200m, with 1 win and 4 placings from 9 starts.

Looking at some pedigree stuff, his Dosage Profile is (2-0-7-4-1) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.14. No concerns with distance; he'd be suited to even longer. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-5-3-13-6) with Speed 10, Stamina 19, Index 0.64 and Triads (13-21-22). Again, no problems with the distance though only Ethereal has won the Cup this century with a higher Stamina number. There's a couple of other winners whom he looks quite alike though: Makybe Diva, has a very similar profile, though more Speed points; and Media Puzzle is closer still. Interestingly Media Puzzle did the Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double in 2002. He was penalised 1.5kg for his course record win and carried 52.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. I'd feel a little more confident if Prince Of Arran was carrying the same.

I think he'll make a good account of himself, but for mine, he's carrying a little too much and he's also lacking some brilliant speed (The Chosen One easily ran him down in the shorter Caulfield straight in the Herbert Power; though the danger of that happening again will depend on the make-up of the final field). In any case, I think those two things combined just knock him out of winning contention. Will almost definitely finish top-10 and likely higher rather than lower.