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  #1  
Old 22nd July 2018, 01:03 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Default Middle Price Plan

This approach has been showing a lot of promise.
Check out past results.

Rules.
Target races where fav is 2.60+ in the field.
Target tipsters top 3 sel eg. Tatts qld tipster
Target first 3 qualifying races for each venue that has a $2.60+ fav in field

Selection is the middle priced horse of the tipsters 3 selections.

Best to stop betting at that venue once a winner is struck at that venue.
Do same for remaining venues.
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  #2  
Old 22nd July 2018, 08:08 PM
Gillies Gillies is offline
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Thanks again Bhags for your informative posts, always willing to offer help unselfishly as usual.

Whilst I am only a novelty punter your posts have helped me immensely
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  #3  
Old 23rd July 2018, 11:42 PM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
This approach has been showing a lot of promise.
Check out past results.

Rules.
Target races where fav is 2.60+ in the field.
Target tipsters top 3 sel eg. Tatts qld tipster
Target first 3 qualifying races for each venue that has a $2.60+ fav in field

Selection is the middle priced horse of the tipsters 3 selections.

Best to stop betting at that venue once a winner is struck at that venue.
Do same for remaining venues.


I ran through this system for 23 July 2018 races.
It hit a winner at Goulburn first up - price $4.8ish
It lost at Scone for all 4 races.
It hit a winner at Geelong first up - price $4.2ish

All bets = 6, Win amount = $9.00. Profit = $3.00.
Not bad - a very simple system, hard to muck it up.

I'll check it again tomorrow.
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  #4  
Old 24th July 2018, 07:10 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
This approach has been showing a lot of promise.
Check out past results.

Rules.
Target races where fav is 2.60+ in the field.
Target tipsters top 3 sel eg. Tatts qld tipster
Target first 3 qualifying races for each venue that has a $2.60+ fav in field

Selection is the middle priced horse of the tipsters 3 selections.

Best to stop betting at that venue once a winner is struck at that venue.
Do same for remaining venues.


G'day Bhags, long time no C.

To follow your parade. :-)

Using your criteria ... over the last 5 years ................ (Yes, I collect "tipsters" data too) .....................

Field........WSR
8.............28.40%
9.............26.73% ................ and so on to
14............23.65%

Using a weighted method then the punter has to get odds of >$4 to make a bob.

So, then we play with distance and going, and the colour of the riders' underpants and whatever else you choose.

AND it means absolutely NOTHING other than YOU LOSE.

All hands (and the cook) can sort out by "spreadsheet" which horse is the likely winner in any (true) race.Sadly, likelyhood doesn't translate into wins/$$$. True races have become "unusual".

For many years the "data-base" holders have been beating the living daylights out of average losing punters by using "selective" periods to entice them into the "Bendigo Lost Gold" Systems and so on.

A horse race is (mathematically) a single chaotic system with many more variables that come into play after the gates open.

Where is this old fart going with this ???? I hear you cry.

Without inside information as to which horse is going to be preserved for a later race, which horse is going for a Prov. run etc etc then you're in trouble because it's going to be Saturday.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I continue to look for sensible solutions.
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  #5  
Old 24th July 2018, 05:16 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
For many years the "data-base" holders have been beating the living daylights out of average losing punters by using "selective" periods to entice them into the "Bendigo Lost Gold" Systems and so on.


I agree demodocus, there is one particular database provider that has a slew of systems he devised, and you guessed it, not one of them hold up for any given period of time, except when the systems were created.

On the flip side, and a plug for my own database, all of my systems have shown a profit since late 1998, albeit the bets are few and far between.
This is an ongoing project adding more systems with logical rules as they come to hand.

However, here's the breakdown of all systems combined using TAB prices, not even best tote, top fluctuation, nor Betfair:

Selections: 10,706
Winners: 3,184
Strike Rate: 29.74%
Profit: $567.04 units (TAB prices)
POT: 5.30%
Minimum Price $ 1.00
Maximum Price $31.60
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 302,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/08/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #6  
Old 24th July 2018, 07:27 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Well done Chrome
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  #7  
Old 25th July 2018, 06:11 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
On the flip side, and a plug for my own database, all of my systems have shown a profit since late 1998, albeit the bets are few and far between.
This is an ongoing project adding more systems with logical rules as they come to hand.


Bonjour Monsieur Shiny (minor royal),

Before I found your brilliant d/b I constructed my own (despite sore fingers and late nights) and found a way to lift some faves WSR to in excess of 56% (fields 8 - 14). With the assistance of your complete data I was able to be a bit more sensible and bring the WSR down to a truer, long term Favourite Strike Rate of 47% ..... which is/was accurate and holds up year-in year-out and remains profitable.

I'm now in the process of dumping all but 4 - 5 yo HCP races etc etc. There seems to be a little more certainty of form here (barring bicarb).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, thanks for your efforts and have a good day :-)
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  #8  
Old 25th July 2018, 01:46 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Posts: 5,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Well done Chrome


Thanks Bhagwan
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 302,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/08/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #9  
Old 25th July 2018, 01:49 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Bonjour Monsieur Shiny (minor royal),

Before I found your brilliant d/b I constructed my own (despite sore fingers and late nights) and found a way to lift some faves WSR to in excess of 56% (fields 8 - 14). With the assistance of your complete data I was able to be a bit more sensible and bring the WSR down to a truer, long term Favourite Strike Rate of 47% ..... which is/was accurate and holds up year-in year-out and remains profitable.

I'm now in the process of dumping all but 4 - 5 yo HCP races etc etc. There seems to be a little more certainty of form here (barring bicarb).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, thanks for your efforts and have a good day :-)



Thanks Demodocus,
Glad you've found the database of use.
Merci beaucoup :-)
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 302,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/08/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #10  
Old 25th July 2018, 02:56 PM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Gosh all this French makes me remember my recent trip to Quebec in Canada!

I ran through this system for 24 July 2018 races.
It lost at Wyong for 3 races.
It lost at Warren for 2 races.
It lost at Rockhampton for 4 races before hitting a winner at $3.6ish

All bets = 10, Win amount = $3.60. Loss = $6.40.
Not so good this time in.

Perhaps one of the suggestions made already is you should only bet if the price is $4 or greater.
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