Can anyone run a database and maybe provide some stats?

On a long losing runs of favourites, do they become poorer and poorer value? Was thinking the other day that with the amount of people/systems that chase favs, after a loosing run of even 3-4 favs, would the odds on offer versus the true value of the favourite start to be affected?

What got me thinking about this was we were at the casino the other day, and there had been a run of 5 reds, so naturally, everybody started throwing all there money on the black because supposedly it was due to win. As it turned out, there were another 4 reds in a row, which quickly bankrupted a number of the players at the table who kept backing it.

Any thoughts on this, do you think this would apply to racing as well, and could we use this to our advantage in laying favs to lose?

Think of it this way:

On 1000 spins of a wheel you will get 500 red and 500 black (assumign no green on roullete wheel).

So if you had 5 red in a row. Lets assume that we always get 500 reds every 1000 spins. So we have 495 more to go in the next 995 spins. Your advantage has now gone to 500/995 for black which is 50.2%

The above assumes that exactly 500/500 comes out for each colour and that there is no green on the wheel. If you include the green then your still at a disadvantage.

Now your talking favourites. They don't have a 50/50 chance. They are closer to 30%. So lets go 1000 races and you had 5 favs in a row lose. That means your expectation is now that 300 will win from 995 bets. Your increased chance has gone from 30% to 30.1%.

I've seen 15 reds in a row at Crown, certain cultures love going with patterns and walked out with plaques rather than chips.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I don't have any stats but I believe that on average the starting price of winning favourites increases slightly as your average race card progresses, which may suggest that they do not present poorer value on a losing run.

Just my observations.

I understand the probabilty stats, I'm more interested in wether the market chases favs on a losing run, hence making them under the odds, seeing as they are not fixed as per the casinos and fluctuate in accordance to the weight of money being bet on them, SR has nothing to do with what I am asking. So many punters target favs, and start doubling up, or betting larger as each one looses, as in their mind 'the next one is bound to win,' which those of us with a basic ground in stats and probabilitys is a comlete fallacy.

But, maybe i cant put across clearly exactly what I am asking??

The SR usually drops though compensating, and generally the later races are more open handicap type races, instead of maidens full of no hopers at the start of teh card.

True, but the longer price may also suggest that it is not affected by those chasing the fav, doubling up or whatever.

Could be the case, but ultimately the ROI needs to be taken into account to see if that is the case or not. You may be getting $5 about a favourite in the later races, but if its really a $6 chance, your going to have a poor ROI backing them if you see what I am getting at.

Until you have classified how each Favourite became the public favourite (by a variable or combo of two) and then the strength of "gap" between the 2nd Fav. basically you will never know.

But to answer your question wagering bias does occur but not how your thinking.

Best tip
Start handicapping your fellow punter not the horses. In wagering there are only a few strong variables at play

Joe Public will play those types (per variable and gap strength) of favourites over and over the same way day in day out.

Well if we go back to your casino example, what did the red & black boxes look like on that 9th red spin? Red box choka full of chips & the black basically friendless I am guessing.

If similar scenarios were to play out at the track/tab, we should expect to see favourites well over bet in later races, & in my experience we often do, but there is enough 'smart money' around to keep said favourite at a decent price - make hay while the sun shines & all that

So what I am saying is that no, in general losing runs do not have an effect on the SP of a fav.