EI,

I agree totally with your first point (best horse does not always win the race) - in fact as I generally only back $8-$20 runners I would probably say my system depends on this! Certainly the best horse on paper often doesn't win for the reasons you mention and a few others. One of the big problems for favourite backers is that many horses probably don't win because of things not known to the punting public (eg. training strategies where the horse is being prepared for a particular race and trainer gives instructions to rider not to ride it too hard, also things like minor injuries in training, etc). Also, like people, horses just seem to have bad days for no real reason! This is why I tend to concentrate on looking for value horses that can win if the better horse(s) fail for any reason.

Also generally agree with your second point (no rule set in concrete) although I am forming the opinion that I should not exclude horses that get included by my system but I can include ones that miss out if there is a good reason for it.

If its so easy quit your job and go pro.

On 2002-06-30 15:38, freddy wrote:
Its easy picking winners if you have 3 selections per race.


I don't agree with that Freddy.
Ratings put horses in order of their winning chances. It does not mean that even one of the horses is any value and should be backed.
Good ratings long term will only average about 60% from the top three if every race is rated.
Just for an experiment Freddy, and you don't have to post it, pick your top three for races of your choice, decide which if any should be backed and how they should be staked and see how you go.
The Catparrot.

I don't need to back 3 horses. One is enough.
If you back 3 horses per race, in the 25% of races where none win you lose triple the amount! pass on that.

If you back 3 per race, and the avg winner is only $4 that's only a break-even situation based on a strike rate of 75%.

The only way for this to be profitable would be if your avg dividend was higher, whilst still maintaining the strike rate at 75%.

I'd rather pick 1 and have a strike rate of less than 50%.

Accept everything you said in that last post Freddy. But I use ratings. My top selection might be assessed by me at $4, $3 available, no bet. My second selection might be assessed by me at $6, $4.50 available no bet, whereas my third might be assessed by me at $6.50, $12 available. So it is a bet.
The Catparrot.

Thanks for the mention hermes :?

I was fairly clear on the fact we were betting for value last week and Smiling Eyes in particular was the longest priced qualifying runner I could find in Melbourne.

If anyone ever puts money on something I selected.......You idiot. Do your own research. I have already written last week off as a crap day. I think I'll paper trade for a week. Just like horses, we go through peaks and troughs, it's important to realise this and take a week off if necessary. Well I think so anyhow.

Placegetter

[quote]
On 2002-07-02 14:50, Placegetter wrote:
[quote]

"If anyone ever puts money on something I selected.......You idiot."

That's a vote of confidence.

Whats your point?

Who needs a vote of confidence anyway? Your bank balance will tell you whether you should be confident or not. There are only three tipsters on this site I would even read selections from, let alone note them in my black book.

I stand by my statement. If you follow my tips, or anyone else's on this site, get out before you are eaten alive. I only bet on one of my tips from last week (Jilina Blue, fourth at Ipswich), so how could you possibly know what final factors I look at before putting real money on it?

One regular contributor to this site bets ONE MINUTE before the jump, so his selections could only ever be horses to consider.

Then there's price or the dirty "v" word to take into account. Just like trainers don't enter every race to win, I don't bet on every race to win. As long as I play the percentages right, in the long term I'll be out in front.

What do you think this is? A place to log onto every Saturday morning, write down a few tips then head off to the track to secure the best price and collect your fortune. I know that place, it's called Neverland.

Placegetter

PS. Correction, I also bet on Carlton at 13/1 to beat Brisbane by 15.5 points or more.

_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-07-02 22:20 ]

[quote]
On 2002-07-02 15:32, Placegetter wrote:


"Who needs a vote of confidence anyway?

I stand by my statement. If you follow my tips, or anyone else's on this site, get out before you are eaten alive."

Tell us what you really think.

I don't think it would be necessary to do that, otherwise I might be removed from the forum, and heaven knows how awful that would be.

You guys not having me around to rely on for tips and great advice! Just how would you survive?

Here's a tip. Your next bet in Melbourne should be in about 12 weeks.

Placegetter

_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-07-02 22:21 ]