Oh yes it's true.

Every [fit for the run] horse running can be a ****** or a Champion depending on the race pace, the track and distance and the barrier and depending on what type of pace suits the horse, the experience of the jockey. Some runners could win with your Granny aboard [on-pacers drawn within 1 to 9 barrier or back-markers from a wide alley] and others need a very experienced jockey aboard [leaders who need an experienced judge of pace over the distance].

Any horse on the day can have a rating from very low to very high, depending on all of the above. Working it all out is the form student's key.
My original thoughts are also the reason that favorites often get a drubbing and long-shots gets up and win!

Well Foinavon 100-1 (a milk cart horse) won the Grand National so I guess that proves your point Crash.

Though still Favs win 30% of races and the REST of the field wins 70%!

Everything must have been perfect on the day for Foinavon and terrible for the rest of the field! :-0

Favorites lose so often because the public punter judges [95% of them anyway] the horse on every bit of previous form EXCEPT it's natural pace [not in the form guides] and how that will fit in to the natural pace of the runners it's is about to compete against.

Understanding and knowing a horse's pace is the next step [up] in form study understanding I think and from that position a much truer value of the odds on offer can be judged.

I'm still learning and there is a lot more to learn. Spending a bit of money on a form service that tells me every horse's pace in any race, has been the best investment I've ever made. I've certainly noticed a big improvement in my punting account.

I find great value in targeting backmarkers in outside alleys in races with more than one leader which provides plenty of pace [the backmarker The Jackal winning from the outside barrier last Saturday was a good example of value].

Leaders with a good jockey in races where they are the only leader in the field [jockey can control the pace] is another good earn area too.

worse than that crash, the entire field fell, Foinavon about a kilometer behined vitually walked through the hole in the fence and staggered over the line, I'm not joking...... a few jockeys managed to re-mount to finish and nearly caught him! (think it was a him)

Crash,

It seems that pace and draw together are really only investigated in the greys and trots, and perhaps the Golden Slipper, the rest of the time - it's pretty much ignored.

I still haven't been able to quantify pressure in a race, it's not the first sectional, it's not the last, and it certainly isn't the race time, but it's in there somewhere.

Me old mate California Dane is the prime example, he just cannot handle anything bigger than a low grade Group 3, put him back to Listed and he bolts home, put him up to Group 2 and he runs midfield.

This is a track record holder and his best times, say he should easily win a Group 1, but he can't take the pressure and runs tailed off - yet the racetime is slower!

I know a lot of punters and bookies use speed maps, but not in the way you describe, so you're probably getting quite a few overlays with your method.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I remember a member a few years ago who had a web site based on speed ratings, very good it was until he closed it down.

There is nothing real complex in what I'm now doing but I've been in good profit since I seriously started using the method about a year ago.
Then it was just backmarkers from outside[ish] alleys and my first win was Ice Chariot in barrier 14 in his race before the Qld Derby. Payed $17w. And stone the crows he draws the 14 alley in the Derby and did it all again at another good price [he's been a dud after those wins]!

I've been quietly taking some very good collects ever since from the right backmarkers but now I include searching for lone leaders with a senior jockies as that's a very good area to look into as well.

Mid-pacers [must have a good Jock] and on-pacers [any jock] are a bit harder to figure and my success in that area has been mixed. Still, after a year it's all become a relatively simple method of following and sticking with good prices. As far as speed maps go, well I'm not really doing that. As long as the horse is capable of a good sectional [for the class of race] in the right contd. to suit and the price is good, I hop aboard.

Simple but very effective.

I think California Dane is a bit of a sook. Your right about the time but it's never just time that counts. Some very slow horses have been winning a lot of races and one in particular. I dare not mention the name as she is considered by some a 'Champion'. I don't wont to cause a riot!

EG the lone backmarker method:

The G1 tomorrow in Brissy has 3 leaders [plenty of pace] and only 1 backmarker. The money for Takover Target will of course be odds-on. But for the only backmarker Black Ink with Ollie on -board, might have the odds worth taking.

Takeover Target's 2nd.-up record isn't very flash either: Only 1 win from 4 starts.

Guys

Have you been following Pharfromoz's postings in the Horse Racing Forum. S/he's punting from Palm Springs and is turning up some nice winners using various pace and distance methods adopted from the US. Worth a read and a brain pick or two.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Here is my take on tomorrow Sat. from my backmarker and lone leader method. Lets see how they go.

Sat. 12/5/07
Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5)" [B]*
6/6 5500 Crepe De Chine (NZ) (15)" [L]should cross to lead.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14)" [B]*

DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B]*
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B]*
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14)" [L] should cross to lead.

MORPHETTVILLE
5/3 x424 Our Currency (4)" [L]*
6/4 2118 Jest For Fun (9)" [B]
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9)" [L]*