Just wondering how Equine Investor picked his two picks for today?

R5 No 5 Optimizer - 1st up after a 334 day break, was beaten 13.4 lengths last start

R8 no 14 Real "Something" - beaten 16.5 lengths last start. Only won 2 races from 36 starts.

Were these picked at random?
Or is there a theory behind picking horses that were beaten more than 10 lengths last start??

Good question Red Machine.

It had nothing to do with the 10+lengths.

Optimizer was firstup and last time it was first up it beat a fair horse in Shepherd's Lil. Also Beadman took the ride on it so it could have been a good value bet.

I usually look for two or three factors such as these, and value being the most important.

Real Sassy ran a great race second up last time after a spell. Also by Naturalism so the going/distance should suit at good odds.

For those following it may pay to back place as well coz it does experience a fairly long run of outs.

Wouldn't you think that if a horse hadn't raced in almost a year, its fitness would be poor, even if it had a barrier trial or trwo?

As for Real Sassy, even if its 2nd up form is good, if it was beaten by more than 10 lengths 1st up, don't you think that its form/fitness is doubtful???

Unless Real Sassy is dropping massively in class, it needs to improve by more than 2 secs to win.

re: optimizer, not really. After all it's only had 4 lifetime starts and at it's first start it won. Also it had a barrier trial prior to that win and this time in it also had one. Anyhow it's hypothetical now cause it lost :cry: but I will be following this horse.

As far as real sassy goes I think it's a great place chance at least if you look at the formline. The last time it finished 11L from the winner it came out next start and WON!
It did the same thing the season before that, so I am expecting (hoping) for big things.

Well, turns out it didnt run so good ops:

Can't win 'em all.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-06 16:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-06 17:08 ]

i dont know
but i backed full limit last week and he was beaten 18 lengths the start before and won by 6 bit like getting struck by lightning

A horse needs a good excuse if it was beaten by that far! If they don't have an excuse, they are a bad bet.

Equine Investor - you sound like a beginner. If you want to learn more about punting and pick more winners - read some of the postings by Privateer and Brumby. They should point you in the right direction. When you learn more about horse racing, hopefully you'll pick more winners.

Excuse me while I laugh :lol:

RM - I think you better have a look at some more of EI's postings - you may not agree with him but I don't think he is a beginner!

I noticed on another thread you posted:


I am guessing that given this statement you never bet as nobody can ever be sure of the winner. To be successful you need to find horses that are MORE LIKELY to win than the odds on offer. If you think a horse has a 50% chance of winning but the best price you can get are $1.90 then this is a BAD bet. If you can find a horse that has a 10% chance of winning but you can get $15.00 for it then this is a GOOD BET. This is called looking for value.

On 2002-06-06 18:14, Red Machine wrote:
Equine Investor - you sound like a beginner. If you want to learn more about punting and pick more winners - read some of the postings by Privateer and Brumby. They should point you in the right direction. When you learn more about horse racing, hopefully you'll pick more winners.

Red Machine,
We do not welcome people joining this forum in order to call other posters beginners and write in a patronising manner.


[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-06-07 21:51 ]

Red Machine....Think back to the many times where you asked yourself "how did I miss that winner?"

It is not that hard to pick a series of shortpriced winners but this usually cannot be sustained or is sometimes not profitable, I look for runners at value who I consider ,based on previous formlines and history, should have a chance at good odds.

Unfortunately, it would seem that a great many are too impatient to see how this plan works (in the longrun).

So rather than cop the caning and distressing other forum members, I'll post my high strike-rate system, which should keep people happy.


:sad::

poor ol red machine.There's always somebody who bites off a bit more than they can chew ,who speaks first then thinks about what they say after.
reminds me of a toddler who begins to run so quick his little legs just can't keep up- then crash!