Cameron
The 31 out is related to an average strike rate of 20% ,i hope you can work it out from there.

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Cheers.

Well what do you know!! At the risk of looking like an idiot I just realised my 9% strike rate was actually one winner in every 9.4 bets on average - that seems to be actually a strike rate of 11.24% - if that is how I should be working it out???

That improves the outlook a little...

I am sure these figures have been shown before but I feel it is time to air them again in the light of a lot of the recent postings. They give the theoretical run of outs that could be expected for various strike rates to be more than 99% sure of getting at least one winner (if I did the maths right).

sr 1in2 1in3 1in4 1in5 1in6
99% 8 14 19 24 29
sr 1in7 1in8
99% 35 40

Of course this analysis assumes that a punter consistently gets a given strike rate. Unfortunately, although over a period of time one might achieve a 1in3 strike rate, racing is unlike tossing a coin or a dice (which have a fixed number of faces and the chances are the same each throw) and there might be long stretches within that period where the strike rate is 1in6 or 1in2 even, but averaging 1in3 overall. Thus basing future staking on past POT has serious flaws as I am sure many have discovered in practice.
gunny