It will fall over. It is not concocted from past results but it just had a losing week followed by a small profit week. So others can have it now. It was developed by looking for second up winners and then it was realized it may just have a sound principle within so on 11/02/2006 the first week of betting was had after seeing some winners crop up on 04/02/06.

The die by principle is chasing a front runner next start when the first part of the race was run at faster rate than the last 600 metres.

1/ Today’s race must be not more than 1699 metres.

2/ Considered horse must have a winning strike rate of 1 in 6.

3/ Excluding second up horses, considered horse must have been not more than two lengths of winner in one of its last two starts.

4/ Considered horse must be in first 25% of the field at turn at their last start. Ignore first up horses.

5/ The last race must have the first part ran at a faster rate than the last 600 metres.

6/ Today’s race must not have prize money of more than 5/3 times the last race.

7/ Only use track condition to track condition form.

04/02/2006

1.22 DB R1 5 Classy Darcy 3.2l G 1/9-3 C6 1M first 4.20 1.70

1.32 FL R3 7 Biscayne Bay 3.9l G 3/12-8 C6 0.78M first 8.00 2.50

1.42 MP R2 3 Hurricane Gaze 0.1l G 1/11-2 C6 0.75M second 1.50

3.40 MP R5 5 Lamancha 0.8l G 2/14-1 C4 1M first 2.80 1.40

4.20 MP R6 6 Lord Braemar 0.2l G 3/12-2 C6 0.66 unplaced
8 Snipify 0.2l G 2/12-1 C4 0.66M unplaced

4.41 DB R6 13 Mersey Beat 1.8l G 3/14-3 C4 1M second 1.40

5.10 RA R8 10 Pizza 5.1l G 2/11-8 C4 1M first 4.70 2.10


11/02/2006

3.10 RH R5 7 Purple Dane 0.2l G 2/11-2 C4 0.92M third $1.40

5.00 CH R7 5 Identifiable 0.6l G 2/10-2 C4 1.15M unplaced

5.50 RH R9 7 Our Liam 7.7l G 1/14-13 C3 1.35M first 9.00 2.90


18/11/2006

1.00 CH R1 1 Generally 3.4l G 1/10-8 C3 M2 unplaced
3 Lujainator 0.1l G 2/12-1 C4 M1 first 10.30 2.50

1.40 CH R2 2 Terango 5.4l G 1/9-4 C4 1.04 unplaced

4.30 RA R7 3 Flying Pegasus 1.8l 0.6m g C4 2/14-3 first 3.80 1.50

5.40 CH R8 5 Kournerov 19.1l C5 G 1/16-15 2.5M first 17.70 4.40

25/02/2006

12.15 CF R1 3 Leveller 4.6l G 2/8-7 C4 M3.65 unplaced

1.30 CF R3 5 Live in Vain 5.6l C4 2/16-15 2M G first 6.70 2.70

4.02 EF R5 4 Babinda Half 4l c3 1/11-1 G 1.2m second 1.30


04/03/2006


3.40 MP R5 12 Jumaana 3.3l C2 11m 4/16-5 g unplaced

3.50 RH R6 2 Wild Queen 1.5l C3 1m 2/11-2 g first 9.10 2.20

5.30 CF R9 4 Safari Sunbeam 2.1l c4 3.65m 1/8-4 g unplaced


11/03/2006

3.12 EF R4 2 Allegro Spiritoso 3.5l c5 1.2m 1/10-9 g unplaced

3.30 MP R5 2 Molokai's Ladd 1.5l c3 1m 2/10-7 g unplaced

3.40 WF R6 2 Court's in Session 3.3l C3 1m 1/10-6 g unplaced

4 Desert War 1.3l C4 1m 2/10-3 g first 4.50 1.80

4.20 WF R7 5 All Bar One 0.8l C3 1m 1/9-1 g second 2.70

5.05 WF R8 9 Fabiarna 5.7l C4 1m 1/9-8 g unplaced

5.17 EF R7 5 Hard to Catch 1.5l c3 0.8m 1/12-1 g third 3.10

18/03/2006

4.15 AS R2 2 Lyrical Queen 3.0l C3 1/9-1 1m g unplaced

4.30 EF R6 13 Learned Leo 1.5l C5 2/14-3 1.25 g +2 kg unplaced

5.40 RA R9 8 Strada 0.1l C2 1/8-1 0.8m g first 4.10 1.80


Whatever, wet tracks are going to kill it. The only note I have to make it is in WA rarely is the first part run faster than the last. Quite common in QLD.

Put Saturday's selections up. See what happens.

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pipped at the post

Well, with distance and 2yo races and a presumed rain affected track in Brisbane, can only find one loser this week.


1.55 MV R3 3 Amazing One 2/10-7 C4 2.22M G 4.7l

Back everything else in the race.

If per chance Doomben is rated good, find some more for you.

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pipped at the post

Now there,s a sure fire winner for the Commercial system sellers..

1/ Find a sure fire loser and bet the rest of the field.

Now, now you system sellers. It was said in jest.

Cheers.
darky.

As they said in way back 1985, what a nuisance.

It's gone and won paying $6.20 Damn.

If Doomben gets upgraded to good, got a tremendous each way loser in race 8 there.

5.52 DB R8 4 11 Rapid Reason 8/15-12 C5 1.25m g 4.8l

Couldn't run a drum if it had to.

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pipped at the post

No upgrade of the track but I'm happy to take it as the loser it was.

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pipped at the post

Hi Many geese

Can you explain a bit more how you work out if the first part of the race was faster than the last 600m. I can understand it in a 1200 metre race, but not sure how to work it out on longer races. I am using Sportsman which gives total race time, and last 600m.
Also can you explain what the letters and numbers after your listed selections stand for?
Many thanks
Salty

I do a proportion. Have been thinking allowances should be made for longer races and ask a little better than quicker for shorter races. Then you could extend the idea right through to distance races.

From the cyberhorse form guide

25/02/06 CF R3 LIVE IN VAIN 15-16* 5.6L, Caulf., 11Fe06, 1400m, C F Orr, G1, (6), $302000, Good, L Nolen, 15, Cd 58.0, (WFA), 1:22.36, (35.63), 20/1, S 2, 12 -, 8 1, T 2, 1-Perfect Promise 55.5

Race time 82.36 seconds Last 600 in 35.36 seconds.
So the first 800 metres was ran in 82.36 - 35.63 = 46.73 seconds.

To convert this to a 600 metre rate you first divide by 800. This gives you the time taken to run 1 metre during the first part of the race. 46.73/800 = 0.0584125 seconds. Multiply this by 600 and you have a comparitive rate. 600 x 0.0584125 = 35.0475 seconds. This figure is less than the 35.63 of the last 600 metres.

That to me indicates that there has been genuine pace in the race. The horse that made that pace I say were the front one or two horse. Perhaps 3.
I have lobbed for the front 25% at the turn anyway which is not necessarily an exact science if you haven't seen the video. Anyway the horse may not have won but the ones that did were not able to match his or her pace once they got wound up.

My little notations

CF R3 5 Live in Vain 5.6l C4 2/16-15 2M G

5.6l I don't use but that is how much it lost by. C4 means Class 4. To me a class 4 horse is a horse with a winning strike rate of 1 in 4. Live in Vain at the time was 25 starts for 7 wins. If it was 7 wins from 21 starts it would be a class 3 horse.
Just my way of doing it. I don't think you get all that far if you are backing horses with a strike rate less than 1 in 6 on a regular basis.

Then 2/16-15. I use cyberhorse form and they give you a horses position at the turn in most cases. Live in Vain was 2 in a field of 16. This definitely says he has made the pace in this race where the first part has been run faster than the last. The 15 means he came 15th but I don't use that either.

2M is my way of determing class change from race to race. I'm not sold on it and it stuff's around a bit from state to state but the prize money in the Orr stakes was 302,000 dollars. The race that Live in Vain is in here is worth 150,700 dollars. Thus the 2M. If the M figures gets down below 0.6 I toss them out.

The g means the form race was run on a good track so I'll only apply it a future good track.

I use colouring to indicate if it was within two lengths at one of it last two starts so that doesn't show up here.

I am looking for an honest horse and wants to win. One that has won before and made the pace in a recent start. Then perhaps blown up in the run home or gone with it and ran a place. Or even won. Next time I expect an honest run again, this time with perhaps a degree of human imput from trainer and jockey.

A lot races get run without genuine pace and the winner comes out of dog's breakfast of a dash at the end. Very hard to ascertain genuine future form from that sort of race.

Incidentally, Strada should not have been selection. Just found that out then. I usually go through it all on Thursday and Friday nights. I was doing a double check on that Saturday afternoon and thought I had found one I missed.
Looks like I have read the the 5 as a 4 in 35.34 which is what it works out to be. The last 600 rate is 34.43. Thought at the time how could I have missed it but I hadn't. The rest will check out pretty sure.

Makes up for missing Lujinator because I couldn't get the bet ezy thing working.

Rapid Reason would not have been selection in this system yesterday with a track upgrade. It was not a pacemaker at its previous start. Just toying around with something else when they are coming down in class.

Hope this helps. A few of the winners have been narrow margins and ALL BAR ONE was a narrow loser but there is a definite principle involved and you might have some fun toying around with it and applying it in some other way. But will post next weeks losers Saturday morning.

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pipped at the post

Thankyou manygeese for the explanation. I think your method is worth checking out for a bit longer.

Salty

Domben rated dead. Have more losers than you can poke a stick at if it gets the upgrade.

Otherwise


2.20 RH R4 13 Cullemour 4.3l 2/13-9 C4 1.25M G This three year old has no chance in the welter.

And why not lose on a couple of favourites. It's just as good. Remember a loser is a loser.

2.50 CH R4 4 Headland 3.8l 1/9 – 5 c3 0.83m g

4.55 AS R4 2 Lyrical Queen 0.5l 1/12 – 1 c3 0.78m g

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pipped at the post

Well afraid the fun and games are over for another week. Lyrical Queen out in the next at Ascot on account of the dead track so we can't score the second loser there I'm afraid.

Pity about Headland. Off to a fine start with the 3yo finishing well back in the welter but the $3.40 win of Headland has unfortunately put paid to losing this afternoon. Always next week.

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pipped at the post