Star, you are closer to your answer than you think.

You already seem to have a good rating method created. I would recommend you use this to find a good horse where everyone else isn't doing the same level of work as you.

Do you think the public pays more respect to a BM55 at Gilgandra on Tuesday over an Open race at Flemington on Saturday? The focus on major races is intense by both public and bookie. As a result they trim the markets perfectly. The focus at Gilgandra would be a few knock-abouts at the local. Even the bookies are too lazy to frame their own markets for these races. You get quite a head start here.

On the races I prefer, horses in the sharp end of the market (up to $5.00) have paid 5.5% more than quality races so far in December. That's quite an edge and it's not form related. It's mob related.

Perhaps if you apply your rating skill to true handicaps (no maidens, mares only, colts only, etc) in events up to BM72 or CL2-3 you may put your systems into profit.

Your skill at rating a horse will beat a non-focused recreational punter every time. And the added bonus is there are more poor quality races than good races all week long.

__________________
“Everyone’s got a plan. Until they get hit”. -Mike Tyson

That's eleven vitriolic posts Beton ..... enough ??

Barny
You have been on the receiving end. It does not feel good. What I have said is felt by many others. You are welcome here. But to quote yourself "do it the true spirit of the forum." If you don't like somebody's post ignore it. If you have something to say about somebody's post then say it in a civil manner and if you do not get your point across then walk away. If you are going to post something about a thing that you are not going to share then don't post it and boast about it. LET'S GET SOME QUALITY BACK IN THE FORUM. Please Barny stand in the third person and read your posts. In the meantime Happy New Year Beton

Star ..... everyone has days last start as a filter don't they ?? It's always <15 or exactly 14 days or backing up quickly in 7 days or it's tailored around the individual horses optimum number of days between races. All have their limitations. < 15 days includes horses backing up quickly and it's fairly well known that most sprinters don't back up all that well seven days later, so why would anyone have as a filter < 15 days for instance ? I'm not telling you anything you don't know am I ?? Think $ dividend always. Let's look at horses backing up quickly, say 7 days. Run all the different distances through your database with a horse backing up within exactly 7 days and you'll wonder why the heck trainers ever back their charges up 7 days over sprint distances. There is a system that has shown a profit of backing up over 7 days over 1200m exactly with another rule or two thrown in, but in general it's better that you avoid sprinters backing up over 7 days, but the punters seem to love these conveyances, maybe look at geldings ?? .... Maybe horses could back up over 7 days if the distance was a little longer than a sprint, it's worth looking into, especially a handicappers favourite. But do you look for a last start winner backing up, or maybe a horse that didn't run into a place, I don't know, there's plusses and minuses for both but the bottom line is that you must steer clear of the punters favourites 'coz all you'l get is skinny odds regardless of the price. There's a case to be made, incertain circumstances, to look at a horse that's been freshened. Give this a try sometimes. As with all filters it cannot be broadbrushed over your database and be expected to shine, nor should it be tailored to suit each individual horse .... These beasts change markedly from one campaign to the next (one week to the next actually !!) and cannot be relied upon, but what can be relied upon are the punters who pick up on horses' individual traits and mannerisms and expect to have an advantage. Funnily enough, I've found the opposite. That's me over and out for good ..... see you later Beton

Mac on a serious note - I usually only look at horses with a run under there belt at this distance range.

This improves the results

Hi Barny,

Good thought provoking stuff. I've always wondered about horses backing up within in 7 days. Another interesting "thought" was horses in sprint races (1000m) having several starts this preparation perform better than horses first up (or maybe even 2nd up). I don't have any stats but I do remember reading something to this effect.

Anyone able to confirm this?

Barny. One of your best posts ever. My hat off to you. You have a lot of good in you and you have let some shine out. This giving out a bit and pointing the right direction. 95% of people won't go there but you have helped those that do. Beton

You are exactly right Moeee - the Favourite strike rate hasn't changed.
More people have access to the same amount of data with the use of the internet now. At the end of the day there has to be many many losers for any one person to make profit.

Why do many 1st uppers have a low strike rate. Because they aren't fit enough to win the race. Does that mean we only focus on horses 2nd run in. Probably not! We should be looking at methods to assess how to measure each individual horses fitness levels. A tough challenge for anyone but one that needs to be applied.

Then there is speed analysis, velocity ratings, class etc... all good information and not much information discussed anyone.

TTA Horses do not tend to back up so fast. If it has been challenged in a race then no matter how good the horse is, it will generally take longer than 7 days to recover. No trainer will risk a horse if it has been challenged. However if the trainer does not think the horse has been challenged and it's fitness is still there then he will view it as an advantage to back up in exactly 7 days. Why 7 days. Because this will mean that the horse is backing up in exactly the same type of race 7 days later. If the horse was not a LSW then there could well be a bad start, some intefernce etc and mostly likely the horse coasted home behind the pack.

Of course people do that.
Book
"Fitness the key to winning" and the follow up.


Rem Plante's books.
Contaning chapter on
Acceleration/deceleration.

Bayer's books on speed etc.

Not discussed because it's too geeky.
And because you simply cannot apply it manually, just too tedious.

Easier to go with names and colours and tab numbers.