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  #31  
Old 23rd May 2005, 06:23 PM
punter57 punter57 is offline
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I'm not sure if Moeee means there is an absolute limit a horse can carry before IT BREAKS IN HALF or.....just that there is a sharp fall off in performance at some point. However I feel it would vary from horse to horse either way,especially when you consider that they put 70 Kg on the Jumpers and then expect them to run MUCH further while leaping over the obstacles as well!!!
As for thw Olympic weightlifters; they are lifting TWICE their bodyweight.In the case of a thoroughbred I can see how being allocated double their bodyweight (ie 1 tonne) might slow 'em up (though, as I've said many times before,I MIGHT bet even them if the odds were long enough!!!).Cheers

Last edited by punter57 : 23rd May 2005 at 06:31 PM.
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  #32  
Old 23rd May 2005, 06:37 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Sure weight will stop a train, but we are talking about weight ratios.
An extra kilo will not make any difference to a huge beast like a horse over racing distances.

The reason that toppies perform so poorly over others is not that they are weighted down, but that they are out of form.

Why then can jumps horses carry 10kg more than flat horses and still win and not even be puffing?

I know I'd rather be sprinting than jumping with any weight.

Example:

Let's look at the strike rates of last start winners within 30 days to keep it even.

#1 24.53%
#2 19.56%
#3 17.51%
#4 14.89%
#5 13.60%

Conclusion, the penalty imposed by the handicapper is not enough to stop the winning advantage. The horses which carry the most weight are the most successful. The horses which carry the most weight, but are out of form do not perform, as does any other horse, no matter what the weight.
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  #33  
Old 23rd May 2005, 06:55 PM
davez davez is offline
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spot on chrome, lots of punters send way too much time trying to make sense of what weight changes will do to a horses chances, as i have done, & end up none the wiser.

facts are that if the horse is fit, maintaining its form, & has a bit of luck then a extra kilo or 2 up or down aint going to make much diference to its winning chances.

a much greater factor is, i believe, the class of nags it is now facing.

also after having a quick read of the mentioned book, well looks like a lot of work to me
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  #34  
Old 23rd May 2005, 07:31 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Davez,

Class is about 10x as important as weight in my opinion. In fact more horses win rising in weight than dropping in weight - go figure!

Horses rising in weight 17.47%
Horses dropping in weight 12.33%
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  #35  
Old 23rd May 2005, 07:34 PM
kenchar kenchar is offline
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Hey moeee,
You dead set had me worried that I had anorexia and that I only weighed 11.4 kg, but I just went and reweighed the female brick ( the one with the holes ) and it weighed 2.5 kg.
Congratulations you caught me out.
RAH RAH RAH
************ chardonny again, I'm glad I don't bet at night.
The interesting thing though about reweighing the brick is that it confirms my opinion that if that was in the jockeys undies ( except for being very uncomfortable ) it would not make a damn difference if the horse was good enough on the day.

Cheers
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  #36  
Old 23rd May 2005, 07:47 PM
shoto shoto is offline
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Keep in mind also that the spread of weights has been compressed in recent times compared to what it used to be. In the days when weight rating was the be-all and end-all, you could have had a the toppie carrying more than 64kg, and the bottom runner carrying 47.

It stands to reason that as weights have compressed their affect on the outcome of the race has diminished.

Punter57 - Do you have a response to answer my earlier question to you? Of course it's OK if you don't want to.
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  #37  
Old 23rd May 2005, 08:08 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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[QUOTE=Chrome Prince]

Why then can jumps horses carry 10kg more than flat horses and still win and not even be puffing?

QUOTE]

And not even be puffing? You must be kidding. Yes they are carrying 10kg more than flat horses, but they are racing against other jumps horses not flat horses so the comparison is irrelevant.

Obviously the performance of a horse will decrease with the more weight it carries. It is just crazy to suggest otherwise.

Try driving a car 1000 kilometres by yourself. Then drive back, but fill your car with people and fill the boot. I guarantee that you will lose a lot more fuel, hence decreasing your performance. If this is the case for a car, with 100 horse power? surely similar results can be expected from animals.
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  #38  
Old 23rd May 2005, 09:02 PM
racingnovice racingnovice is offline
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I think this is going nowhere lol.

I think you people are all missing the point and the real factor which is the weight of the horses.

If horse A was 650kg and horse B was 750kg and they both carried 58kg then yes the weight would be a factor as Horse A would be carrying 8.9% of its body weight and horse B would be carrying 7.7%. This would effect horse A much more then horse B over a 1200m race.

If both horses had roughly the same class/ability then id be backing horse B everyday of the week. Horse B would need to carry 67-68kg to get it to the same level as horse A.

It would be no different to having 2 people a 70kg and 100kg person both carrying the same weight. I can assure you the 70kg guy would struggle more then the 100kg guy.
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  #39  
Old 23rd May 2005, 09:24 PM
kenchar kenchar is offline
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This is an interesting thread seeing all the different opinions, can I just throw another worm in the woodwork, and believe me it is something I have a bit of knowledge about having made a LOT of money years ago from stable information.
The word is bloodcount, only the stable and the stable vet know on the day whether the bloodcount of the horse is 100% correct, and as I was told IF the bloodcount was not spot on even though the stable ran the horse they would NOT back it.
We can go on forever about weights and how long is a length ( If it was me measuring the rail and it was night time and I'd had a few glasses of my favourite the length could be 10 metres).
There are so many unknowns in this business that you will not find information on.
I admire people that can do form and CONSISTANTLY win as they are few and far between.
Just my two bobs worth.
I just wish I knew a friendly vet that doesn't mind copping a sling.

Cheers
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  #40  
Old 23rd May 2005, 10:07 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BJ

And not even be puffing? You must be kidding. Yes they are carrying 10kg more than flat horses, but they are racing against other jumps horses not flat horses so the comparison is irrelevant.

Obviously the performance of a horse will decrease with the more weight it carries. It is just crazy to suggest otherwise.

Try driving a car 1000 kilometres by yourself. Then drive back, but fill your car with people and fill the boot. I guarantee that you will lose a lot more fuel, hence decreasing your performance. If this is the case for a car, with 100 horse power? surely similar results can be expected from animals.


No joke BJ, I've seen it - remember Rick Hore-Lacey's Fast Food before he was put down? Wouldn't have blown out a candle.

I wasn't comparing flat horses with jumpers, I was comparing the ability to carry weight and still perform. Jumping with 10 kgs more than a flat racing horse and still the weight doesn't stop them. Because the weight ratio is insignificant. It makes a difference of probably 1/100th second.

It might be crazy to suggest otherwise, but why then do more horses win going up in weight than down in weight, why do more top weighted horses win more than any other horse - because the weight impost is insignificant.

Yes if I added three more people, and gave the horse a full meal before the run, it would stop, but a kilo here or there is nothing - the stats prove it.
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Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
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