Thanks, Wesmip1.

I had another good day today with Sky - 17 successes from 18 races. Over the past two days there's been 29 successes from 32 races.

A qualifying race for my method is that at least 3 horses have to be $11 or less and that the four Sky selections are not the top 4 in the Betfair market. I then lay the horse that is closest to the $11 mark and has not been selected by Sky.

I'm keeping details of the bets in the hope of applying some filters. Today's only accident was an unraced horse where most of the horses were also unraced. In these races its not only difficult to determine a price but also be easily omitted from one's selections.

Time will tell...

There was one placegetter from yesterday's two selections for a return of $2.00.

There have now been 7 placegetters from 11 selections for a return of $11.00.

One selection today:
Northam R7 no.3 - Zuboyne.

Hi Michael,

Just a question or two about your 'Sky' method:

"A qualifying race for my method is that at least 3 horses have to be $11 or less" --- in the win market on B/F, I presume. Not much chance in the lay market!

"I then lay the horse that is closest to the $11 mark and has not been selected by Sky." In which market?

You mention a few filters could help. There is an English site (guess I'd better not mention names and court trouble!) which suggests filters (among others) of not laying the fav.; no races over 1m4f (2000 for us ?); not laying horses that finished first or second in their last run, or horses that have run in the last 8 days. They also rule out maidens and a couple of other races that do not apply here; and they state that there should be at least 10 runners.

May help in your endeavours --- which are much appreciated. All the above thoughts are offered free on the site in question so I don't see any problem about mentioning them here.

Hi, Merriguy.

The filter of having at least 3 selections of under $11.50 (must be the Lay Price about a minute prior to the start in the Betfair market, I ignore the TAB markets) generally rules out those races that have a hot fave. I've never been keen on laying anything in these races. As a matter of interest, today's Gosford R5 had two horses under $11.50 where the Betfair fave (Steamy) was $2. The other horse under $11.50 was no.2 which would have been the Lay selection. Steamy did not finish the race and No.2 ran second, which would have been a bit of a worry.

Another filter that I've forgotten to mention - if at least two of the four Sky selections have been scratched then it is a no-race. One of the 3 accidents so far have been in this situation. Because I bet it, I include it in the results even though it was not a valid selection.

I have had not much action today. Only 3 races so far.
Otaki R5 no.12 - success
Bendigo R1 no.2 - success
Bendigo R6 no.6 - success.

Fingers crossed...

I'm keeping detailed records of the selections, such as placed/unplaced last start, field size, and a couple more. I would not be surprised if there are accidents in the larger fields because with a max of 4 selections they should be more accurate in smaller fields. Time will tell.

Edit - just missed Bendigo R7. The selection would have been no.8 which was unplaced - bummer!!!

I was reading somewhere that Slow & Heavy tracks producers more photo finishes than Good , Fast or Dead tracks.
So maybe its an idea to leave Slow or Heavy tracks alone for that reason.

Also for those looking at the UK market,
1 furlong = 200m
1 mile = 1600m

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks, Michael, for the advice. Appreciated. It will be good to follow how the idea pans out.

I'm pleased to hear that the opportunities were limited yesterday as that seemed to be the indication from what I was doing.

And to make things worse I spent quite a while trying to sort out my PC clock, having failed to hear of the accident on the F3 and that Gosford was running a whole race "late". Oh well....Good luck today.

Hi, Bhagwan.

All three accidents so far have been on good/dead tracks but its certainly something to look at. I would not be surprised if most of the English tracks were rain affected, so if that happens to be the case then maybe the reverse might be true here - better to lay on soft/heavy tracks?

Merriguy, there were more qualifying races yesterday but I was not at my computer for most of the day. I had only one more lay bet which was Ipswich R7 no.6 - it was beaten. 4 successes from 4 selections.

Yesterday, the sole selection in the Place method paid a measly $1.20 here in NSW but $1.60 on Unitab. Having the best tote feature certainly makes a huge difference!!!

Today's selections:
Port Mac R5 no.4 - Soiled Dane
Wangaratta R6 no.2 - Danni.

From yesterday's two selections there was one placegetter paying $1.40.

There have now been 9 placegetters from 14 selections for a LOT of 2.8% ($0.40).

Three selections today:

Gold Coast R5 no.1 - Left Standing
Toowoomba R3 no.4 - Spanish Sister
Belmont R6 no.3 - Dante's Banquet.

One more clarification, Michael, if I may. In writing about which horse to lay you say:

Is the idea that you lay the one closest to $11 (no matter if there are other horses who would qualify by being not among the Sky selections) or do you go for the lowest of those not in the Sky selections (and so have a lesser liability)?

You did mention that a smaller field means that one of the four mentioned on Sky are likely to take the money; but it is also a fact, surely, that the larger the field the more is the possibility that something else will get up (besides your pick to lose)!

Hi, Merriguy.

In these cases where there is more than one selection I trust the Betfair market. I ignore the one with the lower liability and I then lay the one closest to $11.

Unfortunately I don't have the complete results of field size for last Tuesday but with the results that I've got I've split races (1) with starters of 11 and less, and (2) with starters of 12 runners or more.

My records show (omitting last Tuesday) that there have been 11 selections in fields of 12-plus runners. Of these there have been 2 accidents (I don't have records for the 2 other accidents that occurred last Tuesday), one selection that ran second, and six that ran third. Today I have layed two selections - Caulfield R1 no.10 and Port Mac race 3 no.10. Both were in fields of 12 runners and both selections ran second!!! In fact, these two successes today has put 12-plus runners into profit.

However, in fields of 11 or less there have been (again, omitting Tuesday) 25 selections for no accidents, two selections that ran second and three that ran third.

As a matter of interest, even though there were two accidents on Tuesday, the method won 5.45 units for that day.

This very small sample (a total of 36 selections) currently shows that the smaller fields might be encouraging. Only time will tell...

Since last Tuesday there have been 46 successes from 50 selections for a profit of 30.75 units.