Do these results sound okay?

No filters applied to system I reviewed this morning so surely this one won't crash and burn like all the others did!!

Over 40 weeks:
Selections 195
Return $299 (best final odds of IASF or NSWTab, top fluc would be + $40)
Winners 44
Other places 46 (26 2nds, 20 3rds)
No places 105
Strike Rate 22.56%
APW $6.80
Top 3 Collects $13.60, $11.60, $11.30
Top 3 Other Places $12.00, $12.00, $11.00

Does not involve betting moves or after the fact selections, I have my selection in the morning after scratchings.

Would anyone put there hardearned on this? Or wait a little while longer?
Am a little worried about the winners to places ratio..

Thoughts much appreciated.

sahasastar, looks pretty good to me, nearly 200 selections is a fairly good trial. My only thought is as long as some part of the selection process doesn't involve something that can change, e.g. Must be in some tipsters top 3 , or ridden by a particular Jockey etc. I mean the tipster might have gone through a purple patch, same with the Jockey etc. Otherwise I say go for with a limited bank and have some fun.

They are very impressive results.

As for the "relatively" small sample of selections and short period of testing:- a very well known horse racing publication often tests their for-sale systems over a period of approximately two years in which there are several hundred selections. Then when sold, the system performs poorly. I have read more than once that when the rules are tested by a buyer with a large data base the results thrown up by the data base disagree markedly and unfavourably with those listed in the publication's sales blurb.

So I would say the system certainly has potential, and I would not be worried by the number of selections, 195 is more than enough for me, unless of course there are factors in the rules that Partypooper has described.

Sahasta,have you tried 1x4,win and place? Cheers.

i think you should share it will the forum and get all of our opinions! hehehe

__________________
LOve all sports.

Captain Charger, somewhere amongst my many posts you will find me knocking the idea of 1x4 (or 1x anything) my thinking at the time was that you would still have to show a profit at levels AND a profit at levels for the place.
However since then I've looked at it closer and can see a real advantage when encountering losing runs, i.e. say your using a % of the bank, just for arguments sake 2%, so you would divide that $figure by 5 and place 1x4, never decreasing, the advantage comes in because although you may have long losining runs for the win, the place component can carry you through to the next run of successes (wins)
so I think I am converted! though I'm doing more research to see the optium mix, i.e. 1x1, 1x2, 1x3, etc etc

Anyone else with thoughts on this one?

Party,

Somewhere -- a long way back, perhaps two or three years ago -- there was an indication by someone (if I remember rightly) claiming that 1:5 was the best ratio.

I have often thought of that when various people indicate 1:4 is the way to go. I'm almost certain that figures were given to back up the claim. I have made some effort to find the thread through the good 'search' facility on the forum; but it is hard to narrow things down. 'Ratio for a place' or the like just returns too many possibilities.

I'm pretty sure that the figures showed that straight up returned the best of all, as you would expect; but, besides the thoughts that you gave above, there is the very real 'psychological benefit' (for want of another term) in receiving a return on a regular basis --- for myself anyway.

Found it! The post/thread that I was referring to is
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthr...ght=Place+ratio
The whole thread is worth reading.
See post #11 of this thread.

I remember reading a US article about ew ratio betting. The best optimum ratio according to the article was 1x6 ew. I'm not aying it is the optimum, but it seems to pan out OK. I use it when not betting straight win and they are the times when my win selections all seem to be coming 2nd or 3rd. for long enough to cause serious doubts about my handicapping ability rather than the correct answer, the horses just lost due to events that can't be handicapped.

Knowing the above intellectually however, doesn't help. Anxiety results and THAT can lead to poor handicapping and or bad bets being made, which supplies more 'evidence'. that there is something wrong with the selection process. A good time to switch to systems or place betting for awhile until chance runs it's wicked course and equilibrium returns.

Place or ratio ew betting keeps the losses down during bad times even though we might still be losing. With a small win component in our place bets [1x6] it bumps up our place return when the inevitable win[s] come up for our place only horses, especially when we are now place betting, winners seem to come up all the time :-).

The 1/6 win component makes a very small difference when we only collect for the place. At 1x5 or worse, [1x4 or even 1x3] we are looking at a more substantial loss to our place divvy and it's the place we will [mostly] be getting our collects from during the hard times when our win bets are suffering a serious bout of 'seconds'.. Alternatively, ratio betting full time has it's advantages and especially for 'percentage of pocket' punters [most of us] who do not have a punting bank and the luxury of $20 bets that are only 1 or 2% of bank and enduring a spell of seconds is very hard to take [or afford] indeed. I have been using the 1x6 approach for the last week exclusively due to a bad patch of 'seconds'.

Well we all know what Murphy does to us in these situations and I'm kicking myself, but will keep off the win bets for awhile yet. Below are the results of Murphy's law for the past week:

[have used stab prices as my NT acount prices have lots of cents in them]
All bet 1x6 unit ratio ew.
Sund. 14th May. Geelong.
r4/4 Loanhead $2.50w $1.30p
r6/11 Bush Ballad $1.60p
r7/10 Manhattan Treasure $1.60p
r8/4 Like It Is $4.20w $1.70p
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mon. 15th Pakenham
r9/9 Cristelon
Bathurst
r4/2 Fame And Finesse
r6/4 Goldengate Bridge
r8/5 Canamble $5.70w $2.20p
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tues. 16th Stawell
r6/4 Investments $5.30w $2p
r7/13 Vanity Quay $3.70p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed.. 17th. Werribee
r3/4 Aria Diva $1.90p
r5/1 Celtic Bloom $3.70w $1.50p
r6/2 Gallantree $4w $1.70p

Eagle Farm
r6/2 United
r7/10 Partridge $4.10p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thurs.18th. Ballarat
r5/7 Questjeune
r6/4 Incinerator $1.70p

Hawksbury
r9/7 Wolfman Jack $4.80w $1.70p
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri.19th. Scone
r4/6 Sutton King $2.50w $1.40p
r7/8 Saxon

Kyeton
3.10pm
r6/8 Foreign Scandal $1.80p
r7/4 Shahana $7.60w $2.10p
r8/10 Brethren
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dosn't take rocket science to work out win only bets here would have had me in very nice gravy. Good old Murphy:-)

Hi it depends if you want to win $$ on every bet (we all do) or get your money back if your selection runs a place eg. 1x3 if your selection is paying $1.35 a place maybe 1x4 1x5 1x6 if you would like to win.