Good luck with your selections Lomaca.




Take out Bye Bye Bella as its carrying 1/2kg. too much for the rules. It's going to get beat by No. 2 Prima Nocle anyway I think.

Interesting to note in Sydney R4/10 Magnus is running it's 2nd. only start. First start it beat Californian Dane 8-)

I'm only puting these selections up today to see how the system's original rules go. Dosn't mean anything long term but what the hell. I won't be putting any more selections up. I don't mind if the thread quietly slips of the page after todays meeting :-)

Applying the IAS openers to the rules, these would be the following qualifiers today:

Sydney 3) Mi Casa
Brisbane 3) Sir Sensible & Milady Clang
Brisbane 4) Lasting Luck
Brisbane 6) Minassi
Adelaide 5) Chemin

Don't think Sydney race 1 was a qualfier as it was fillies & mares.

Interesting angle La mer.
I crossed out the Syd. R1 F@M race [it came 3rd. and definitely had too much weight awarded to it. Up 4kg.].

Interestingly, Magnus, the horse that beat the Dane I mentioned, won. An easy collect there.

Not a good day for the system. Milady Clang w$4.30 and a couple of place getters. I don't mind as the thread will now slip quietly off the page [I hope] from lack of interest.

You might get your wish Crash. I just learnt the hard way that this forum software doesn't like you pasting stuff from a word document. A touch frustrating....


On today, I did get Babinda Half BR6n12 as a selection above Minassi due to lower PP which helped todays return. Depends where you get the PP prices.

Big plus so far with NB is it doesn't take a long time to come up with selections particularly as I can get a short list by running some criteria through Bet Selector. That is a reason I have stopped handicapping/form study to a degree - just takes time to do it right.

feather,

How'd you end up today. I did want to ask you what your opinion is when there are 2 selections as there was in 3 races today. One 'lowest PP' got up and one higher PP got up. I do favour the idea of higher PP but perhaps that is just greed and lower PP's get up more often. Have you found any trend in that area?

I did do you a message with the selections I got from the original rules today plus a little side issue I'm looking at that came up with one more slection today but as i stated above it wouldn't let me post it because I cut and pasted. I'll touch on it later if youre interested and I'll start keeping some records.

Grub

Hi Grub,
think its best for me to keep my opinions to myself from now on, i had four selectons today, and two were different to what was written here.
but keen to keep in touch on this matter.

Just on that is there private messaging on this forum. I am not having any joy trying to send you a message - comes with 'has been disabled etc'

Not wanting to stalk you feather but am happy to discuss things 'off air' if you wish.

Grub

Your right about this being a very easy system to use Grub. My wife has just started betting the system for this year. Sticking with the original rules and one I forgot to mention [ an unwritten rule I added at some stage]: If a selection is in a race with a fav. at $2.50 or less, ignore the race [too often the short Fav. starts odds-on and wins, especially during the week]. We are familiar with these rules and they have [mostly] been kind to us.

I'm sure feather mentioned once that if more than one selection comes up he dumps the race. Was it a win or loss for your system version selections yesterday Feather?

I'm still handicapping but it's been a tough summer with the wacky hot/humid weather earlier on not helping. If it hadn't been for a [lucky] 30/1 shot the Brake pulled at a provincial last week and a 12/1 shot I fluked yesterday, we would be in the red so far this year. So no great performances here.

Crash,

I agree with that rule (race with short priced fav), it has some logic. In fact that is what I like about NB thus far is that there is good logic behind the criteria - one supports or clarifies the other so it doesn't (to me) have the same feel as a mechanical system. It's early days for me but it appears there should almost never be the case when you are backing a horse that you think has no conceivable chance of winning todays race. I am also attracted to the use of PP prices rather than SP as it allows some market influence but you don't need to be stuck to computer on race days. Makes home life much happier - Happy wife (or brake as you like), Happy kids - Happy days)

(backing a horse that you think has no conceivable chance) is why, despite spending a few years playing with them, I am off pure mechanicl systems in particular long shot systems that rely on an occasional fluke.

Just on that subject I don't think there is anything to worry about someone selling this system/method/concept because the only ones they plug and they only ones us silly ************s buy is those with totally unbelievable and unacheiveble longterm results - like 180% POT. Open up with 35% SR and 15% POT for last 10 years and it just won't have that same 'This is the one' tone in Ian Craig or Brain Martyns voice. I know many of us on this forum would like the sound of it but it doesn't rope in the sales (and probably doesn't exist).

I have noticed some mention of $3PP, is this to eliminate if the PP is under $3? Just that yesterday it would have eliminated Palibiro and Sir Sensible (both beaten fav's) from my selections and left me with Mlady Clang and Mi casa in the same races which gave a better result.

Grub

Grub,

The rules of NB where all linked to produce a sensible handicapping result. Every selection must have a chance, a runner I would consider backing after handicapping the race and within reason this has been achieved. I think a big problem with many systems is they are designed by very poor handicappers with little understanding of it, through lack of interest and not much practice because of that. The system then throws up a lot of selections that a handicapper wouldn't back in a pink fit.

You could use $3/$7 as your price for most newspapers etc. But I think $2.50/$6.80 is a good one for the WA site. For the Newspaper if there is a $2.50 or less PP fav. I don't back a selection running against it. For the WA site I use $2.40 because the site has those sort of odds. Newspapers tend to round to 50c.

There is a starter today at $2.50PP. Might ease out up to $5, or shorten. That one is heading to wards odds-on. I don't worry too much as it evens out. Another runner today is $6.80PP and running against a $2,50 PP fav form the WA site. $2.40PP and I would have ruled out the selection. Small differences but put in place over time.

You really need to work with what suits you, but be careful of worse than dead tracks and PP odds. Also worth considering is the formline that adds to 9 for most selections didn't come from slow or heavy tracks and thats the Handicapper thinking here and saying system logic becomes rickety and unsupported by inclusion of wet tracks, unless the selections are then handicapped for the cond't. and that is drifting from the whole point of a stand alone system.
Everything must be supported by everything else in the system. I stick to 'good' tracks and less bets in poor weather. Of course, how individual punters use or modify the system is up to them. They might improve it or vis-a-vis too.

Hi Crash,
no i lost yesterday, but luckly my other method had a win (changing eyes at adelaide,), but still a loss anyways,
that's the thing about this system - nb - its either a good day or a bad day. (well i have found this to be) the last two saturdays have been good.
today a good day at the ssc. and one at colac, although short