I have a Formula which suggests the Correct Win Wager Size to take advantage of the size of the Overlay.

( Market Odds/Rated Odds - 1 ) / Rated Odds

Sometimes the animal is well Under the assessed Rated Odds and therefore is not a betting proposition.

I wish to take advantage of the LAY betting at Betfair.
Could someone convert the above Formula so that it applies the exact same procedure for animals that are UnderLays?

I figure that now I am betting the animal will lose , so the LAY Rated Odds will be 100% minus the Rated Odds Percentage and then divide that into 100.

And I figure the Market Odds would be 100% minus the available Lay Odds Percentage divided into 100

If anyone ken what I am on about , am I right?

If anyone has some idea what I am after , could you please post the Formula?

I'll give it a go but essentially its the inverse of the odds.

Your formula is : ( Market Odds/Rated Odds - 1 ) / Rated Odds

Lets assume your Market odds were $3 and your rated odds were $5.

The Market gives it a chance of 33% winning and 66% chance of losing You give it a 20% chance of winning and a 80% chance of losing.

So your rated odds of it losing are 80% = $1.25 and the market rates it as a 66% chance which is 1.51

Put those figures into your forumla :

(1.51/1.25-1)/1.25 = 4.832

Now to work that out into a forumla should be too hard.

(1/(1-(1/Market Odds))/(1/(1-1/Rated Odds ))- 1 ) / (1/(1-1/Rated Odds ))

Lets try that for the $3 and $5 ratings above:

= (1/(1-(1/3))/(1/(1-1/5 ))- 1 ) / (1/(1-1/5 ))

= (1/(1-(0.33))/(1/(1-0.20 ))- 1 ) / (1/(1-0.2 ))

=(1/(0.66)/(1/0.8)- 1 ) / (1/0.8)

=1.55/(1.25-1) / (1.25)

= 4.832

Looks good to me.

I'm quite depressed at the moment due to losing badly.

But I love your work UB and I'll have a closer read tomorrow morning when i feel better.
Thanks very much.

Just one thing.
The original Formula told me the size of the Win Wager to make.
The answer was Multiplied by my Konstant comfort number.

In my situation.
If I wanted $3 about an animal and I could get $5 then my Wager would be multiplied by this Konstant and the answer inputting these Prices using the original Formula would be $17 for the win.
So my Konstant at the minute is 77

That 4.83 number UB , would that be the amount of the LAY Wager , or is that the amount I need to LAY Liability?

My understanding of your formula is that it is basically the kelly equation.

hat formula gives you a percentage of your bankroll that you should bet. So 4.83 would be 4.83 % of your bank roll.

I would use that as the LAY Liability.

If I had the $3 market rated dog and I had it rated at $5 I would lay to lose 4.83% of your bankroll at $5.

So if my bank was $1000 I would lay to lose $48.30 which would be $48.30/($5-1) which is $12.07 is the amount you would want to stake.

Hope that makes sense.

Yes it does make sense.
But it will make even more sense tomorrow morning

Would be your payout not your liability.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

A bit more here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...15&postcount=13

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I was thinking it would be clear as crystal this morning.
MUD is a word that is currently in my mind.

I can't quite grasp what LAYING is.

I find an animal and I figure it has a carefully calculated chance of saluting.
Therefore it must obviously have a carefully calculated chance of losing.

Is this chance of losing , equivalent to the sum all other animals chances of winning?

I'm having trouble with when LAYING something at $3 , I am in fact backing an imaginary animal which has the combined winning chances of the rest of the Field at $1.50

I did fluke a $40 Winner last night and the LAYING Trail has lost a little of its appeal and I am so confused how to invest now.

I seem to be much more comfortable risking a small amount with rare large Payoffs.
That is as opposed to Risking Large amounts for frequent small Payoffs.

All I can say is laying is not for you then. Stick with what you know.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Oh no. not you too moeee. Seems this forum has more than a system curse.