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#81
27th December 2007, 08:00 PM
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Example files
Here are two xls files to show the diff. between increasing the losing bet by 1.5 and 1.6.
This is on favoreds on the TAB! The last two columns are relevant here, the last one is the cumulative return, the sec. last one is the amount bet. Before that, is the cumulative return for one unit. Remember the minimum bet on the TAB is $3.00!!! I work on one unit! This is for the month of Sep. 2007. You can see how far the draw-down can go, and how much you have to bet just on the one unit basis. Hope it sobers up some people. Cheers 
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#82
27th December 2007, 08:04 PM
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Yeah, bet $10,000 to win $10 on a favourite.
The favourite might be a 4/1 favourite and you are backing it at odds of less than $1.01, that's why it doesn't work, you are ensuring the worst possible value on the largest bets.
__________________
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#83
27th December 2007, 08:37 PM
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Well, I rekon that longshot system I posted where you select a couple of horses showing half decent odds that have won previously might be good. Maybe only bet them if the horse showing good value in the odds has a certain jockey and trainer combo. The logic being you are putting your money on the jockey & trainer since they have shown good form as well as the horse.
Since its been mentioned thats more often than not horses don't win again after winning, since its got good odds for a win, place bet instead of win bet since the place bet should be good value to.
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#84
27th December 2007, 11:05 PM
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FYI
A quick look at the non-maiden races today at Mornington has 2 out of the 4 races been won by a horse that won its last race. Both of those winners returning >$9 for a win.. There might still be a profit to be made in a system backing a horse showing odds of $9+ that placed 1st in its last start? Granted the sample size is quite small  . So i'm going to track the winners for a week and see how many out of how many races were winners in their last race.
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#85
27th December 2007, 11:49 PM
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Quote:
This in my humble opinion is complete trickery. Since when does any punter take odds of $1.01 about a $5.00 horse? NEVER. If $10,000 is wagered on a horse at $5.00, then the odds for that wager ARE $5.00, NOT $1.01!!! The amount of a wager needed to recover past losses, whether the wager is $5 or $5,000, DOES NOT alter the odds obtained by that wager on a horse.
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#86
28th December 2007, 12:23 AM
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Well you've just shown that any credence to your method has no merit.
You cannot concieve the basics of odds so how can you expect to turn a loss into a profit??? I bet $10,000 to win $10 that's a lot less than 4/1 It doesn't matter what they pay me, if after all those losses I make a measley $10.00 Effective odds is what you're getting!
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#87
28th December 2007, 02:02 AM
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Quote:
Again trickery in the use of the word "win". The effective odds are what you get, not lower than what you get! If you back a horse at 4/1 those ARE the effective odds you get on the wager. But if we used your word trickery method, then if we are level staking with $100 bets and are down $1000 and back a $5.00 winner the "effective odds" of that bet would not be $5.00 BUT instead "minus $7.00" because we would still be down $600 after the winner!!!!!!
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#88
28th December 2007, 02:04 AM
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The only person you are tricking is yourself.
It is a lot different level stakes and you know it, or at least I hope you do. I can't argue with someone who cannot grasp the basics. Crash and I have had our moments, but at least he argues logic, and I respect him for it. I can't respect this illogical and uninformed train of thought. I'm out.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 28th December 2007 at 02:07 AM.
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#89
28th December 2007, 03:27 AM
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It just dawned on me...you are Bert
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#90
28th December 2007, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
plenty of "sane" people do have the cash required & the balls to have a go, my old mate is a perfect example the 1st time i witnessed his doubling up prowess i recall being stunned to put it mildly, & the old ************ did clean up that day. from memory he kept that run going for a couple of weeks, winning every day at the casino &/or tab, then gave it all back + his stake & more within a couple hours fun? for some who can genuinely afford it lose the job/house/wife/kids? for the rest who cant
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