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  #51  
Old 28th July 2011, 10:41 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Max, Wot say you a loosely described stable based system?

Rules for selecting a horse to back for one or several runs;

1) This is a little starchy so it might be called judgement rather than a rule, but it’s my number one eliminator. Eliminate 2 y/o. DO NOT back a 3 y/o, or older where the horse had good, or great 2 y/o form as it’s probably had the guts run out of it. They very rarely come up after a successful 2y/o campaign

2) I base my selection of a horse to follow for one orseveral runs on S/R % - that’s the essence to the system. Blindly following a set S/R % will lead youto the poor house but there’s a couple of the most logical filters that onceapplied have resulted in many double figure winners, quite a few in the 20’sand 30’s and the odd one or two longer. This is an individual horse selection method, it’s NOT handicapping arace to find the best horse at whatever …..

3) I disregard distance, course, trainer, weight, barrier,sex of the horse, jockey, condition of the track, first up (had several goodwinners where there was NO evidence of first up form), second up and so on, andall the rest of the form filters.

This system is guaranteed to continue coming in with regular/ consistent winners because it’s LOGICAL and SIMPLE in it’s method of pickingout a good horse. If my selection methodfails, then good horses will be inconsistent and won’t qualify!, and goodhorses won’t win races and again won’t qualify. The whole universe will become a contradiction. It would be like saying Cadel Evans is agreat cyclist but can’t ride a bike or that Rory McIlroy is one of the bestgolfers in the world but can’t break 90.

There are races where several horses qualify and I apply thesame logic to end up with one horse as I do when I select a horse to follow,only this time there is an elimination system of qualified horses.

There’s been a couple of different posters suggesting thestable method. I don’t use the stablemethod but one of the posts suggested that 70% of city class horses will winwithin 5 starts. Now I don’t know thatto be true, but if you go through a form guide when there’s a decent days Metroracing and look at each individual horse you’ll find a lot of decent priced winners. There might be 16 runners in a good raceshowing the last 5 runs of each horse = 80 bets. Add up all the win odds and you might bepleasantly surprised, so there’s merit in this particular stable system. As I said it’s not for me because you mayhave horses on the downward spiral and just be throwing good money afterbad. On the other hand you may have acouple of good ‘uns, but this is much harder than it sounds, at least it is forme.

The other poster gave a ranking to each horse won or placedin Group races. Dunno, but I do rememberTears I Cry winning a group race then being unable to find another suitablerace for well over one year. But I guessif you can find a Group class horse then they’ll win and some at good odds, butthis isn’t for me either.











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  #52  
Old 28th July 2011, 11:50 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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re rule No. 1), a 2 y/o that's been sparingly raced and educated is OK to include in the stable later on as a 3 y/o or older. Just not a 2 y/o where it's been targetted for the Blue diamond, Magic Millions or any other decent 2 y/o race and has had the guts raced out of it.
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  #53  
Old 29th July 2011, 01:44 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Max, When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to stop and think ..... The money ain't where everyone else is.
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