System,

1. WIN STRIKE RATE
Consider only runners with a win strike rate of 20 percent or more.

2. DAYS SINCE
A horse must have had its last run within the previous 10 days.

3. FORM
It must have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in at least one of its last 2 races.

4. BEATEN MARGIN
If 2nd or 3rd last start, it must have finished 5 lengths or less behind the winner.

5. WIN STRIKE RATE
If more than one qualifier, select the horse with the highest win strike rate.

This forum is slowly getting back to what it was intended to be.

Cheers.
darky

Lets hope so Darky :-))

A good general rule to add to any system is: 'must have won within the last 12mths.'
It's amazing how many horses haven't, including many runners in big carnival races, even G1's. [Yell, a non winner for a year and a half comes to mind], yet have good SR left over from early preps. as younger horses. Generally they have lost all interest in the game through being heavily raced. Their chances of ever winning even in much lower grades [you see them all the time], are remote. Some do place a lot though.

Hi Crash,

I agree.

I reckon that a horse that won the most prizemoney in the last 12 months or the highest grade race is a very good value bet regardless of it's recent placings.

Another is the form this preparation only.

The only problem is quickly getting that data, Win S/R Place S/R is easily gotten from the formguides, but the rest requires a bit of hard work.

Sometimes this is too much work when rating a whole Saturday's card for example. I think some hard copy publications do have this info though.

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Yes I agree Chrome. What a horse was winning 12mths ago means jack diddly, but there it is in most form guides, w% , p% and average prize-money ....for the horse's whole career an no mention of the last 12 mths.

Miss Mooney Mooney the short priced favorite in the C6 R2 at Ipswich was a very good example of how misleading form guides can be. A 5yr. old mare with $127,750 prize money and a 2nd to Virage De Fortune in a G2 WFA at M.Valley, average earnings of $11,614 and now running in a humble C6 at Ipswich with J. Taylor on board
Of course the best early odds offered were around $2.40 and by race time punters were all over it and it duly went out at $2.10 fav. to the great joy of all bookies !!

What punters didn't see in their form guide was the horse took 9 starts to win it's maiden at Gosford and only then just fell over the line by less than 1/2 a length [15/5/05] and has never won a race since. 12 starts later and there it was shorter than a Gold Coast mini ! It finished 9th. from 11 runners.
Sacking all horses who haven't won for 12mths. is a good idea and if a form guide doesn't go back that far get one that does is my advice to any punter.

Unless punters do plenty of digging and hard work there is no way to win at this game. If it was easy it would be impossible to get a bet on let alone get into a race track. There are very good tools [form services] available for handicapping or system building but they are not free. They do however pay for themselves as far as I'm concerned.

Free sites are available sure, but you need time and energy to visit a lot of them to gather enough basic info. to make intelligent selections for 1 race, let alone a whole card. Most punter's bets [and they often have heaps of them] are based on a much larger slices of luck than they realize. Money down the drain is the long term result. I don't mind though, as the less winners the bigger the payouts :-))

Often it seems the 2yo and 3yo purple patches make a lot of horses look better than they are, yet they cannot rise to better class when they are older, or are simply burnt out speedsters who can't handle the middle to longer distances when better class is contesting.

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The 3 to 5yr. old runners [I don't back 2yr. olds as not enough form, though that's when they start winning] are the best place to look for winners and I rarely back anything else. If they are any good they usually get too much racing so get em' young I say and sack them at 6yrs. and over. Exceptions sure, but I'm not digging for them.

Hi all

Whilst i think there is some merit in what has been discussed i believe that age has some bearing when you look at stats on there own. For example a 3yo with a 20% win strike rate thats had 5 starts is different to a 5yo that has had 60 starts and a 20% win strike rate.


Cheers
ubetido

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Hi Crash

Just noticed your post re: 3-5age group. I find that when the 3yos are mixed in with the older horses it starts to get a bit hazey. In particular when August comes around and the the 2yo have just turned 3 and are racing with the other ages.

Getting to the middle of the season and towards the latter part the 3yo are stronger and can match it.

Good 3yo throw up a high rating whatever you are doing but alot can't match it with the 4 and 5yo+ in the first part of the season.

Of course there is always an exception but generally i have found this to be fairly reliable.

Cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

There is an old golden handicapping rule about never backing 3 yr. olds until November and I generally don't back them until Feb. or March in the new year and concentrate on the 4 and 5yr. olds in '4yr. old and up' races until then. I like to have a reasonable bit of form to work with, not 'potential'.

Also with SR, by the time hoses have had 10 to 15 starts. their SR is set in concrete for the rest of their career and it doesn't matter a zip if they drop in grade trying to win as they get older, they still run the same SR.

Systems that have the rule 'must have won last start' in them are full of peril when applied to runners with less than 25% SR. A horse with a 10% win SR who has just won, has Buckley's chance of winning it's next start. I recently backed one that [miraculously] won it's last start by 7 lengths and was facing a similar field strength. It's still trying to find it's way home I think.