I used IAS for my early prices and attached is what I came up with. Hard to separate numbers 2,4 and 5

Good Luck
Twodogs

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no i dont back exotics.
also on a sychological point of view i found that the bigger the bet the more you gravitated to the favorite. e.g. remember don scotts theory where he used to say that you bet every horse as if its favorite to ensure you got value of longshots.

generally you dont go long without a long priced listed horse winning a race. the trick is to be on them.
My data base will be slightly different to those working strictly off listed/group results. I mentioned this a few weeks ago where i qualify higher prizemoney races to ensure a reasonable number of horses in each state. queensland doesnt have as many listed races as other states and i qualify the $50,000 race if it is the highest for the day and there are less $ races.
the merit of this can be seen on sunday where A Grade won the last at Warrnambool qualified at Doomben in 2/08. This satisfies the desperate desire to have a bet particularly when 16/1 was offered.
I must admit I have no great expectation from racing but its nice to back a winner without getting in too deep. this is why the longer prices satisfy the urge to have a bet with a reasonable result.
Ref tonight for Bank Robber will be very hard to beat but not much value for punters like me.
My approach can be quite dumb as I went into the TAB at Smithton last week to check the price on With Decorum when it was $3.80 I didnt back anything but that wasn't bright as after it won $3.80 looked pretty good.

__________________
laurie

Nice result, Twodogs.

You did well yourself Jackact!!!

Hey Jackact

I have been a form person most of my punting life so I did the points and then looked at the contenders.

Bank Robber hasn't won below 1150m and that was a maiden!

Which left me with 2,4 and 5. Pins on Parade was scratched so down to 2 and 5. News Alert ran a great race first up and was today back to a better weight whereas Kenny's World had run well at Canterbury before at 1100m but not as well as News Alert.

News Alert paid $6 Top Fluc and Kenny's World was $10 Top Fluc. It would seem prices up to double figures would be best top fluc otherwise get on at best tote.

As Topsy has said though too many igredients and I will over cook the approach so I remain with training wheels on.

Cheers
Twodogs

Okay Topsy,

Just that I had noticed some good wins among the black type contenders where all placegetters had gained points but that would also mean long runs of outs chasing the big one ( if it came before your bank dried up)

Cheers
Twodogs

Thanks for your words of wisdom Topsy!

I think our databases will always be a little different but I have taken on board what you have said about the better races other than black type.

Bank Robber to me was a false fav so the price seemed silly ( My opinion though) and the race looked ripe for some value and I do like your approach from the point of view of the odds you can get for a winner.

Regards
Twodogs

Good Morning Topsy,

Didn't seem to be much on offer on the weekend how did you get on? Interested in your thoughts as maybe I missed something that I could go back to and have another look at and maybe learn something.

Cheers
Twodogs