has anybody else been following this column in the weekly punt to win article?? i just did a quick calculation of the past 10 weeks entries and they returned the following return at sp....there were 20 selections for 14 winners and a return of $29.90!!
thats a whopping 50% profit on turnover (even more if you get top fluc) and 70% strike rate....am i missing something here, can it be that simple to trot out to the racecourse with a barrowful of money and only back these horses??? any other comments....

by the way there were 2 weeks with no selections...i wonder if this has the same success midweek??

Doesn't each race "selection" include four horses? If so [I'm not sure as I've never been able to access them for some reason and it seems I'm not alone with this problem].Beting all four will turn a profit now and then. What are your figures based on? Single selections that are odds-on? Or betting all four [odds-on too]? Your profit ["Whopping"? 14 winners from 20 races?] from that many winners means your average selection[s] had to be odds-on.

Like to know if I'm wrong about the number of horses selected. If single selections of more or less [but overall] odds-on Horses, thats about the Stats. ratio of odds on horses winning anyway. So, just pick your selections from odds-on horses? Isn't that a bit of a no brainer exercise [?]

Thanks Noel [just saw your message]. OK one selected horse. but your original Post is sending the message to new Punters [lots of them, now they have banned smoking in Vic. Pokies]that goes against a valid Punting Maxim; "Never bet odds-on!".
Have my barrow ready. Do you have the shovel?

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-12 03:39 ]

crash, these are not my selections merely the favourite in small fields as published in the weekly punt to win article on this site ....there is only one selection in the race, unless there are equal favourites....
cheers, noel

If there are no selections for a Saturday it means there were no runners.
One thing for sure - we are dispelling the betting myth that small fields are dangerous betting races because longshots regularly win.
Many small fields are very good win betting races - the exact opposite of what media mugs tell you - "no value" - if you can select the right horses - usually a shortish priced favourite/second favourite.
Note the discrepancy between tote and bookmaker odds on a Saturday - that also tells you something.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-08-15 10:57 ]

last weeks results from punt to win....
4 starters, 4 winners, return at sp $11.10...
last 11 weeks now stands at 24 selections for 18 winners, return at sp $41.00...pot 70%..
cheers,
noel

this week 1 selection , 1 winner @$1.50 sp..

overall for 12 weeks 25 selections, 19 winners return $42.50 .....pot 70%...

cheers,
noel

Hi Noel,
I ran this through Price predictor for last 12 months, August 2002 to now - with a surprisingly poor outcome. Strike rate less than 20%. Loss on turnover about 25%.

Parameters used: Field size: Max 7
Saturday only
pos in betting: 1

Don't know if anyone would have different result.

I have run it through the last 150 races
Which produced a
35% S/R
-19% LOT

All winners were on the short side.
This is a recognised average stat.
Backing the pre-post fav.
I`m assuming, that`s what you mean.

Let us know if it is not.

__________________
Cheers.

I forgot to add , that I was targeting races with 8 & less starters , is that what you were doing or was it exactly 8 starters.?

__________________
Cheers.

bhagwan,

these refer to on-course favourites (not pre-post) in fields of 7 or less runners saturday adelaide, melbourne, sydney and brisbane metro races
...your stats may have been drawn from a much larger database

cheers,

noel