Hi,

I was doing some research for a fascinating new mathematical method I heard about and came across this site. If I'm not mistaken it's almost like para mutuel meets the stock market. Any opinions on what this is and, quite frankly, how you might use it to your advantage?

http://www.betfair.com

Thanks,

Duck

Hi TheDuck,

Yes I have seen that site (and there are quite a few others) - it seems to be a "big thing" in England/Europe at the moment. Basically it allows you to play the part of either the punter or the bookie by either placing bets or accepting bets on racing or sporting events.

So far there aren't any similar sites in Australia yet (as far as I know) so I haven't spent a lot of time analysing the possibilities yet. A few immediate possibilities spring to mind:

1. For horse racing there are often short priced favourites that in my opinion are way under their true value - you could make a lot of money by taking bets on these horses if you can identify the true "unders".
2. I had a look at the odds for English Premier league on one of these sites and compared to DAS prices - there were several teams where you could have made money by accepting bets on the exchange site and laying them off with DAS - guaranteed profit of about 20% BUT the bets don't pay until next year so you have the problem of exchange rate fluctuations in the meantime (since you are betting in UK Pounds on one site and Aussie Dollars on DAS). It could be worth looking for variations in short term propositions which allow you to do the same thing or to back both teams in an event (eg. backing one on a sports exchange and the other with a bookie).

Of course there are the obvious advantages of just having another betting option to compare prices, etc. The one thing I think you have to watch is what commission the site takes from each bet.

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

I too have seen the betfair site and there is an Indian guy who is using and selling his system. This method still requires you to accurately identify false favourites, but there is merit in it. I used to do something "similar" at the greyhounds but the margins were too small to warrant the investment. My little system was not the same, but based on the same theory. I used to ring my bookie who offered greyhound odds and check what was going on in the ring at the track. Sometimes I could lay off my bets either way and get a profit.
He no longer offers odds on greyhounds!
:lol:

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Treat your selection and staking methods not with optimism, nor with pessimism, but with realism.

I hadn't thought about pitting this site against other wagers. Interesting thought...

Thanks for the feedback!