I think barriers are a lot more important than we give them credit for. After reading many posts on here one could come to the conclusion that it’s swing and roundabouts with barriers, ie; horses in the widest barriers are overly compensated in the price. Possibly correct. But, if you go through form guides and look only at the barriers, you’ll see that horses do perform better with a favourable barrier, especially in the better class races.



During the spring carnivals, the overhead camera shots show just how disadvantageous wide barriers are. Some horses have absolutely no hope from outside, or wide barriers. 50 metres after they jump you can regularly see horses from wide barriers some 6 lengths worse off than those with inside barriers, without necessarily missing the start. They’ve lost the race in the first 50 metres and they’re in the market.

I've posted the opposite opinion in the past ............

Maybe we could look more closely at the barrier when we consider past form.

An animal needs to overcome its barrier position handicap whether it is Barrier 1, or Barrier 21.
A quick horse out wide can usually overcome the Barrier Handicap.
A Slow horse also will not be unduly affected, as it will drop back regardless of Barrier Position.
Its the medium beginners who will suffer from being drawn out wide.

Barrier 1-3 could be seen as squeeze barriers.
If they are slow to get going , they are often squeezed out of contention as to getting a better position to do their thing, especially if they are traditionally back markers.

As an exercise
Look at barrier 3 on its own .
LS 6th-9th
Include any Resumers X
Lay them not to run a place.
$5.00 & less in its Place price.
Bet level stakes .6% of bank.
8+ runners.

You will find, very few will even run a place.

Some days there will be heaps of barrier 3's being scratched, as if its a hoodoo barrier to some trainers & maybe they rather scratch the beast & do their entrance fee, rather than take on the dreaded Barrier 3 - weird.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan,

Thanks for that, I might have to try that one. If there is a scratching or two would you bet the new horse in barrier 3 or is it a no bet race?

Today if sticking to the original 3rd barrier (and your rules) there was only one horse that placed and that one only paid 1.40 on unitab (Ararat Race 4 No 14 Bogie Danzer).

bhagwan, your integrity is intact, I believe what you've posted to be true / factual ..... BUT there is NOT even an infinitesimal skerrick of logic in the comsos of the punt to be found in the barrier 3 thingamy !!!!!!!!!!!!

As stated before in UK racing certain barriers at certain distances at certain venues cause scratchings. This is well documented and there is a booklet printed spelling out these disaster draws. Again unless the horse can jump out in front first up it has already lost. By the same token for each of these unlucky barriers there are barriers that are bonus barriers.

Hey Bhags.

Barriers 1-3 are very unfavourable for those that use Neurals too, all my methods exclues these barriers....also track winners and distance winners are over rated... I could list about 6 factors/filters that greatly affect neural returns, but that is probably a differnt topic.

Barrier 1-3 = do not play. (IMHO)

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

I tried the barrier 3 thingy today as per Bhagwans theory and got 3 winning lays and 3 losing lays for a loss of -18.75 using $5 lay bets (minimum bet).

I can't believe I listened with my last $40 now down to $21 FLUCK!!!

Serves me right for listening.

The reason I tried with $5 is that they've banned me from betting less than the minimum amount which I was doing with my betfair bot (which allows you to bet less - go figure??)

On another forum I asked if anyone was asked not to bet below minimum stakes and, as far as I can tell, no one outside Oz have been told to cease and desist. Why do the Oz Bet-un-fair have this attitude when there are over 137 applications that let you bet below the BF minimum on their own website - fluckers!!!!!

http://solutions.betfair.com/index...._mtree&Itemid=5

Hi Ocho ,
I'm sorry to hear about your horrible , simply horrible $18.75 loss

If using the .6% of bank as advised that would equate to a $830 bank to start with if betting $5.00
If that's not in place, don't bet.

If barrier 3 is scratched , its a no bet race.

Hi Barny,
You maybe right about there being not one scherrik of evidence.
Our stats are only based on a 2.5yr data base which shows a glaring anomaly where these barriers are way over bet , thus make for solid lay bets.
(This is the secret to lay betting)

Their win & place percentages are horrible & show consistent level stakes losses on the lower priced horses.
What data base are you using to back up those bold statements?

Hi Stix,
I found similar stats that support your findings.
It is as if some Urban myth has been exposed.
I came across your similar findings using GTX over 4.5 years of data Country, Provincial & Metropolitan, over 10's of thousands of races.

__________________
Cheers.